Ludogorets vs Botev Plovdiv: match statistics

Ludogorets are unbeaten after four league matches, with a perfect record of 4 wins and a goal difference of 8:3, while Botev Plovdiv have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. At home, the hosts have won both matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and conceding just 0.5, whereas Botev lost their only away game so far, conceding 3 goals. The visitors are capable of creating chances away from home, recording 1.78 xG and 7 shots on target per match, but their defence allows opponents as much as 2.19 xG and has yet to keep a clean sheet. Ludogorets also enjoy greater possession at home—54% compared with Botev’s 38% away—which should help them control the course of the match. Recent form also slightly favours the hosts: they have collected 10 points from five matches, compared with Botev’s 7. Therefore, a Ludogorets win is the most likely outcome, although a goal from the visitors remains a realistic scenario.

BTTS - Yes looks favorable, as both teams have been finding the net regularly in the current competition: Ludogorets have recorded this outcome in 67% of their matches, while Botev Plovdiv have done so in all games played so far. Botev have not kept a single clean sheet and concede an average of 3.0 goals per match, while the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 2.06. The visitors also offer strong attacking arguments, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and registering an xG of 1.78, while Ludogorets concede an average of 1.0 goal. The trend from the last five matches continues to support goals for both sides, with BTTS rates of 60% and 80%, respectively, while both teams conceded at least 1.4 goals per game during this period. The main risk to the pick is the hosts’ more solid defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches, but Botev’s defensive weakness and the high attacking quality of both teams point more clearly toward BTTS - Yes.

Ludogorets create chances worth an average of 2.06 xG at home, while Botev Plovdiv allow opponents 2.19 xG and concede an average of 3.00 goals away from home. The visitors themselves score an average of 2.00 goals, supported by 1.78 xG, while the hosts concede 1.00 goal per match, which supports a scenario featuring at least two goals. In the current campaign, Over 1.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ludogorets’ matches and in all of Botev’s games, while both teams have scored in every match they have played. Their recent five-match form is also attacking-minded: Ludogorets score 1.8 goals, Botev 1.6, while both teams concede between 1.4 and 1.6 goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as it combines a very high level of result consistency with a clear advantage in goalscoring and xG data over this low line.

Ludogorets have won 67% of their home matches so far, averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceding just 1.00 per game, while Botev have lost 100% of their away fixtures and allow opponents to score 3.00 goals on average. The hosts’ advantage is also evident before half-time: they were leading at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding none. Ludogorets’ attacking potential is further supported by an average xG of 2.06, higher than Botev’s 1.78, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents an average xG of 2.19. In their last five matches, the hosts won the second half in 60% of cases and scored 1.20 goals per game after the break, making a Ludogorets lead at half-time followed by a win at full-time the most likely outcome in the HT/FT market.