Ludogorets vs Cherno More: match statistics

Ludogorets are clear favorites: they sit 2nd with 17 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses this season and have scored 57 goals, while Cherno More have 11 wins, 10 draws, 7 losses and 33 goals. The home side’s form is impressive — 5 wins from their last 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding just 1, whereas the visitors are 2-1-2 in their last 5 with 6 scored and 5 conceded. Offensively at home Ludogorets average 2.00 goals with 18.64 shots, 6.79 on target and xG 2.34, while Cherno More away average 1.29 goals, 10.29 shots, 3.93 on target and xG 1.36. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.64 goals per home match and keep clean sheets in 50% of games, compared to the visitors conceding 0.86 away and keeping 36% clean sheets. Considering the edge in xG (2.34 vs 1.36), possession (64% vs 53%), shot volume (18.64 vs 10.29) and a 5-match winning streak, I forecast a home win.

I predict No BTTS ('no') with a probability of 70% vs 30%. Ludogorets has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 36% and BTTS occurred in just 20% of their last 5 matches, indicating the hosts rarely allow both teams to score. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 57% of home games and concede on average 0.71 goals per game (0.2 goals in the last 5 matches, 1 goal total), while scoring 15 goals in their last five matches (3.0 per game), which points to defensive control and dominance. Cherno More has an away BTTS of 57% and averages 1.29 goals with xG 1.36, and their shot conversion rate of 13% versus the hosts' 8% gives them a chance to score; however, the higher volume of shots and shots on target by Ludogorets (12.93 vs 10.29 and 4.93 vs 3.93) and the hosts' form (5 wins in 5 matches) favour a clean sheet expected. Considering the hosts’ 57% clean sheets, recent stats (1 goal conceded in 5 matches) and the league BTTS average of 44%, the 'no' variant appears the strongest signal.

Calculated xG suggests around 2.89 total goals: expected_goals_home = 1.56 (home xG 1.67 and xG against visitors 1.45) and expected_goals_away = 1.33 (away xG 1.36 and xG against home 1.30). Ludogorets has scored 15 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 3.0) and conceded 1 (0.2 avg), while Cherno More has 6 scored (1.2) and 5 conceded (1.0), indicating a clear offensive advantage for the hosts. Season Over2.5 rates are 29% for hosts vs 50% for visitors, but in the last 5 matches Over2.5 is 80% for Ludogorets and 60% for Cherno More; hosts average 12.93 shots and 4.93 on target vs 10.29 and 3.93 for visitors, supporting a higher volume of chances. Based on this, I recommend playing the Over line at 2.5 (over2.5 = 65%) — over1.5 I rate at 85%, and over3.5 at 30% — the strongest signal is the 2.5 line given xG 2.89 and recent form 3.0 vs 1.2 in the last 5 matches.

I back 1/1 (Ludogorets leading at the break and winning at full-time) because the hosts have won all of their last five matches (100%) and in four of those five games they led at the break (80%), scoring a total of 7 first-half goals (1.4 on average). Creation metrics confirm the hosts’ edge: home xG is 1.67 versus the visitors’ 1.36, and average shots on target are 4.93 versus 3.93, translating into more goal-scoring opportunities. At half-time the hosts have a high share of clean sheets this season (79% of matches with a clean sheet at the break) and in the last five matches they conceded zero goals before half-time (0.0 conceded on average), so a lead at HT is realistic. The visitors are seasonally more involved in both-teams-to-score matches (57% of games) and have scored three goals in the 0–15 minute window this season, so comeback-on-the-break or a draw at full-time remain possible. As a result I assign 43% probability to 1/1 as the strongest signal, 12% to 1/X and 12% to X/1; other scenarios carry lower likelihood.