Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

Ludogorets holds a clear edge in chance creation and defense: at home they average 1.87 goals scored and xG 2.30 while conceding only 0.60 goals per match, whereas CSKA away averages 1.67 goals scored and xG 1.49 with 0.93 conceded. The hosts register 6.67 shots on target and 18.33 attempts per home match versus CSKA’s 4.6 on target and 11.33 attempts away, translating into significantly more created opportunities. CSKA offsets this with higher finishing efficiency (15% conversion vs. the hosts’ 10%) and better recent form over the last 5 matches (4 wins and 2.4 pts per game vs. Ludogorets’ 2 wins and 1.4 pts). Season-long metrics still favor Ludogorets: 57 goals scored and 20 conceded versus CSKA’s 50–31, and 53% clean sheets at home vs. 47% clean sheets for away teams. Considering possession (65% vs 55%), superior xG and higher shot volume, I tip the home win.

Statistical analysis indicates a moderate potential for goals from both sides: xG is 1.56 for Ludogorets vs 1.49 for CSKA, and average shots are 12.67 vs 11.33 per match, creating chances for both teams. However, seasonal BTTS indicators are mixed: Ludogorets has BTTS 53% vs CSKA 40%, and the league average BTTS is 43%, meaning 57% of league matches end without BTTS. The last 5 matches give a strong signal against BTTS – both teams have only 40% BTTS in the last five, and in that period Ludogorets averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded (9/4), while CSKA had 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded (10/6). Additionally CSKA records 47% clean sheets vs 33% for Ludogorets, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring simultaneously, therefore I assess BTTS at 43% vs 57% for No BTTS and recommend choosing "No" (No Goal).

Based on xG I expect around 1.43 goals for Ludogorets (xG attack 1.56 vs CSKA defense xG 1.29 -> avg ≈1.43) and about 1.35 goals for CSKA (xG attack 1.49 vs home defense 1.21 -> ≈1.35), yielding a total ≈2.78 goals. Both teams have season scoring averages of 1.67 each, and the percentage of matches over 2.5 is 53% for Ludogorets and 60% for CSKA (avg 56%), while in the last 5 matches these values are 60% and 80% (avg 70%). The home side averages 12.67 shots and 4.67 on target, the visitors 11.33 and 4.6, with conversion rates of 13% and 15%, suggesting a sufficient number of chances to score. On the other hand Ludogorets have conceded 20 goals this season versus 31 for CSKA and have a lower clean sheet rate (33% vs 47%), which partly limits extremely high outcomes over 3.5. Taking this into account, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (my estimate: over2.5 ≈63%), Over 1.5 is even more likely (~80%), while Over 3.5 seems unlikely (~28%).

CSKA 1948 are in better form — in their last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 loss (last 5: 80% wins), whereas Ludogorets have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (40% wins). The visitors lead at the break more often: 53% of matches with a lead at half-time versus 33% for the home side, and CSKA matches feature at least one goal in the first half in 80% of cases (vs 67% for Ludogorets), which suggests the visitors are active in the first half. CSKA are also more efficient in finishing chances — shot conversion rate 15% versus 13% for the hosts, with similar xG: 1.56 for Ludogorets versus 1.49 for CSKA, so the visitors convert their opportunities relatively effectively. After the break CSKA collect more points and dominate more frequently: in the last 5 matches second-half points are 2.4 for the visitors vs 1.6 for the hosts, and second-half win percentage is 80% for CSKA vs 40% for Ludogorets. Therefore the most likely HT/FT scenario is CSKA leading at half-time and the visitors winning the match (2/2), which I have assigned the highest probability.