Luton Town vs Stevenage: match statistics
Luton Town presents impressive home form with a 50% win rate and a remarkable 50% clean sheets at home, translating to a positive goal difference of +7 in home matches. The hosts average 1.42 goals per match at home while conceding just 0.83, and their xG (1.62) exceeds that of their rivals (0.9), indicating a qualitative advantage. Stevenage has a decent away record (42% wins), however, the high rate of missed opportunities (42% FTS%) and a negative xG ratio (1.0 to 1.31) are concerning, suggesting problems in chance creation. The recent form of both teams is balanced, but Luton's advantage at their own stadium, better efficiency, and solid defense speak for a home victory. Taking all factors into account, I expect a tight victory for Luton Town, although a draw remains a realistic scenario due to the defensive solidity of both teams.
Luton Town vs Stevenage: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Luton Town played Stevenage in EFL League One (England). The match was played on 10 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Luton Town: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Stevenage: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Luton Town scores 1.38 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Stevenage scores 1.18 and concedes 0.82. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Luton Town 38%, Stevenage 45%. Over 2.5: Luton Town 50%, Stevenage 32%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Luton Town has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.07. Luton Town: 12.2 shots per match, Stevenage: 8.9.
Match halves
Luton Town: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.79. Stevenage: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Luton Town: 76-90+ (11 goals). Stevenage: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Luton Town presents impressive home form with a 50% win rate and a remarkable 50% clean sheets at home, translating to a positive goal difference of +7 in home matches. The hosts average 1.42 goals per match at home while conceding just 0.83, and their xG (1.62) exceeds that of their rivals (0.9), indicating a qualitative advantage. Stevenage has a decent away record (42% wins), however, the high rate of missed opportunities (42% FTS%) and a negative xG ratio (1.0 to 1.31) are concerning, suggesting problems in chance creation. The recent form of both teams is balanced, but Luton's advantage at their own stadium, better efficiency, and solid defense speak for a home victory. Taking all factors into account, I expect a tight victory for Luton Town, although a draw remains a realistic scenario due to the defensive solidity of both teams.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Luton Town | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Luton Town is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Luton Town · 1.2 pts / match - Stevenage
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Luton Town is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Luton Town · 1.18 goals / match - Stevenage
Stevenage is 48% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Luton Town · 0.82 goals / match - Stevenage
Luton Town scores in 75% of matches (18 of 24 matches), while Stevenage keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
Stevenage scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Luton Town keeps a clean sheet in 42% (10 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Luton Town
Over / Under - Stevenage
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stevenage is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Luton Town · 1.32 pts / match - Stevenage
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Luton Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Stevenage - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Luton Town
Stevenage
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Luton Town | Liga | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.58 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 50% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 28% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | • 67% | 68% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 81% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Luton Town 0 - 0 - 1 Stevenage. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Luton Town vs Stevenage?
The EFL League One match finished Luton Town 2:1 Stevenage. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Luton Town vs Stevenage?
Luton Town score 1.38 goals per game on average and Stevenage 1.18. The EFL League One average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Luton Town's matches and 45% of Stevenage's.
What form are Luton Town and Stevenage in?
Over the last 5 games Luton Town have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Stevenage 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Luton Town vs Stevenage?
The statistical background for Luton Town vs Stevenage — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.