Luzern vs Thun: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Luzern have won 4 of their last 5 matches and drawn 1, collecting 13 points (avg. 2.6 points per match), while Thun have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses — only 2 points in five matches (0.4 points per match). Luzern scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (avg. 2.4 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0 per match), whereas Thun scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceded as many as 15 (3.0 per match), which demonstrates the home side’s superiority both offensively and defensively. Goal difference in this period is +7 for Luzern vs -9 for Thun, indicating greater efficiency and stability for Luzern. League positions (Luzern 5th, Thun 9th) and average points per match 2.6 vs 0.4 further corroborate the home favoritism. Based on this, I assess the probability of a Luzern win at approximately 75%, a draw at 15% and a Thun win at 10%.

Both teams have high BTTS rates in the last 5 matches: Luzern 60% and Thun 80%, average 70%, indicating frequent goal involvement from both sides. Luzern scores on average 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches (12 goals) and has xG 1.97, while Thun concedes on average 3.0 goals (15 conceded), so the home side is highly likely to score. Thun, meanwhile, scores on average 1.2 goals (6 goals) and has xG 1.43, whereas Luzern concedes on average 1.0 goal and has xG against 1.38 — these figures suggest the visitors can also find the net. Additionally, Luzern form is 4 wins and 1 draw (wwdww), while Thun has 3 losses and 2 draws (llldd), which further supports a goal-on-both-sides scenario. I assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) vs 25% (No), therefore the recommended selection is "Yes".

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows high goal potential: Luzern scores on average 2.4 goals per game (xG 1.97), while Thun concedes on average 3.0 goals (xG against 2.21). Calculating expected goals, the home xG (1.97) versus Thun’s defensive xG against (2.21) imply an expected 2.09 goals for Luzern, whereas the away xG (1.43) versus Luzern’s defensive xG (1.38) yield ~1.41 for Thun, totaling ~3.50 goals. Additionally, Luzern scored 12 and conceded 5 in their last 5 matches, and Thun scored 6 and conceded 15, which confirms a high likelihood of goals at both ends (BTTS: Luzern 60%, Thun 80%). On this basis Over 2.5 appears the strongest signal — expected 3.50 goals and Luzern having 80% of games >2.5 in the last 5 support the over (I estimate probability of over 2.5 at 78%). Over 1.5 is almost certain (~96%), and Over 3.5 has a moderate chance (~52%), therefore I recommend a bet on Over 2.5 as the best line.

In the last 5 matches Luzern has won 80% (4 of 5) and scores an average of 2.4 goals per match versus Thun’s 1.2, while Thun concedes on average 3.0 goals per match. At half-time, however, Luzern led in only 20% of games (1 of 5) and averaged 0.2 goals, whereas Thun averaged 0.8 goals by the break and were level at half-time in 40% of cases. Second-half statistics are decisive: Luzern scores an average of 2.2 goals in the second half and concedes 0.2, winning second halves in 100% (5 of 5), while Thun scores 0.4 and concedes 1.8 after the break. Therefore I prefer the 2/1 scenario (Thun leading at Half-Time, Luzern winning Full-Time): Luzern were behind at the break in 60% of matches but have the strength for a turnaround, which makes 2/1 the strongest signal; I assign it a 50% probability, with X/1 at 20% and 1/1 at 10% as secondary options.