Luzino vs Cartusia Kartuzy: match statistics

Luzino is the clear favorite in this matchup — they have 21 wins across the season versus Cartusia’s 11, and win 80% of matches at home with a home goal difference of +24. Offensively the hosts hold a significant advantage: at home they score 2.73 goals per game on average with mean xG 1.94, while Cartusia score only 1.13 goals away with xG 1.21; additionally Luzino average 7.55 on-target shots per match versus the visitors’ 3.9. Form favors the hosts — Luzino have scored 10 goals and won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 points per game in that run, whereas Cartusia have scored 4 goals in their last 5, have no wins and average 0.2 points per game. Defensively Luzino concede 1.13 goals at home and keep clean sheets in 40% of matches, while Cartusia concede 1.87 goals away and have only 20% clean sheets; the visitors have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 outings. Given the xG disparity (1.94 vs 1.21), the on-target shot differential (7.55 vs 3.9) and recent form (2.6 vs 0.2 points), I predict a home victory.

I pick "yes" (BTTS - Yes) as the main market because recent signals and stats clearly favor both teams scoring: Luzino has BTTS 80% in the last 5 matches, Cartusia 60%, and the league BTTS level is 52%. Luzino averages 2.0 goals in the last 5 games and has last5 xG 1.9, while Cartusia concedes 2.0 goals on average in those 5 matches and has xG_against 1.6, indicating the hosts are likely to score. Cartusia’s season scoring rate is only 1.13 goals and in the last 5 they have 0.8 goals with last5 xG 0.87, limiting their offense, but Luzino concedes 1.2 goals on average in the last 5 and keeps a clean sheet in only 27% of matches, so the opponent has a realistic chance to score. Additionally, Cartusia concedes 1.87 goals seasonally and has season BTTS 40% versus Luzino’s 53%; the hosts register more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.9) and have seasonal xG_for 1.38 against Cartusia’s xG_against 1.69, which together increase the probability of both teams scoring. Considering the weight of the last-5 form (80% and 60%) and the seasonal indicators, I estimate a 62% chance of BTTS "yes" and 38% for "no".

The model projects total expected goals at 2.95, split as Luzino 1.54 and Cartusia 1.41, in line with the league average of 2.94 goals per match. Both teams record high shares of matches over 1.5 goals: Luzino 60% and Cartusia 73%, and in the last 5 outings Luzino averages 2.0 goals versus 0.8 for Cartusia, increasing the probability of at least two goals. Luzino averages 5.0 shots on target per match versus 3.9 for Cartusia and Luzino’s recent xG is 1.9 compared to 0.87 for Cartusia, indicating a significantly stronger home offense. Clean sheets are rare (Luzino 27%, Cartusia 20%), and the seasonal shares for over 1.5 provide a combined signal above 75%, therefore I recommend the "over" side on the 1.5 line as the strongest pick. Over 2.5 has moderate support (seasonal over 2.5: Luzino 47%, Cartusia 60%, league 56%) and can be an alternative, but it provides a weaker signal than over 1.5.

I back 1/1 (Luzino leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) because the hosts are in markedly better form: an 80% win rate in their last five matches and leading at the break in 60% of those games. Luzino averages 1.2 goals by Half-Time over the last five matches compared to Cartusia’s 0.4 (1.2 vs 0.4), while Cartusia concedes an average of 1.29 goals before the break versus only 0.38 conceded by Luzino (1.29 vs 0.38). Over the full match the hosts also have more points per game (1.67 vs 0.80), higher expected goals (xG 1.38 vs 1.21) and more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.9), which supports maintaining a lead at Half-Time. Given these specific figures, the strongest signal is Luzino taking the lead at the break and the hosts winning at Full-Time, so 1/1 has the highest assigned probability.