Luzino vs Chemik Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Luzino have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, taking 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, while Chemik Bydgoszcz have collected 6 points, winning just once. The hosts scored 13 goals during this period, compared with 9 for the visitors, while Chemik conceded as many as 9. The home side’s advantage in chance creation is particularly compelling: Luzino’s average xG at home stands at 2.93, compared with just 0.57 for Chemik away from home, while the hosts average 24 shots and 13 shots on target per match. Luzino’s defence is not flawless, however, as both teams concede an average of 1 goal in their respective home or away fixtures, which increases the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Although both sides have drawn their only previous match in the corresponding role, the scale of Luzino’s advantage in attacking metrics and current form points to a home win.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear, as both teams have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Luzino score an average of 2.0 goals but concede as many as 3.5, which significantly increases Chemik’s chances of finding the net despite their lower average of 1.0 goal. In their last five matches, both teams had BTTS in 80% of their appearances, while Chemik averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded during that period. The hosts should also find a way through, as they create an average of 1.48 xG, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents 2.18 xG. The risk to this pick is Chemik’s weaker attacking numbers, with just 0.57 xG and 2.0 shots on target on average, but Luzino’s highly vulnerable defence supports a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Luzino have averaged 2.0 goals per game this season, while Chemik Bydgoszcz have conceded 1.0 goal away from home, with their average xG against as high as 2.18. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 13 goals, averaging 2.6 per game, while their xG has risen to 2.35. Over the same period, Chemik averaged 1.8 goals per match, whereas Luzino conceded 8 goals in five appearances, making a goal from the visitors a realistic scenario as well. Both teams have gone Over 1.5 total goals in 100% of their matches so far this season, which is why Over 1.5 has by far the highest probability despite a more cautious assessment of the higher goal lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Luzino win at full-time (X/1), as the hosts have averaged 1.0 goals scored before the break and conceded only 0.8 over their last five matches, while Chemik conceded as many as 1.67 goals during this phase. A draw after 45 minutes is also credible given that Luzino were level at half-time in 40% of their recent matches, compared with 33% for Chemik. After the break, the hosts’ advantage becomes more pronounced: Luzino averaged 1.6 goals in second halves, compared with just 0.67 for Chemik. Full-match form also favours the home side, who won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.6 goals, while the visitors won only 20% and drew as many as 60% of the time. An additional argument is Luzino’s superior chance creation, with an average xG of 1.48 compared with Chemik’s 0.57, while their opponents concede an average of 2.18 xG.