Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac: match statistics

Mačva Šabac have a clearly stronger home profile: they have won 67% of their home matches, recorded no draws, and average 1.0 goals scored against just 1.0 conceded. Radnički Kragujevac are currently 5th and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, but they win only 25% of their away games and score just 0.5 goals per match. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home appearances, while the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, significantly limiting their attacking potential. Radnički create chances worth an average of 1.56 xG away from home and register 3.75 shots on target, but Mačva are more clinical in front of goal, converting 9% of their attempts compared with the opponents’ 4%. The hosts’ superior home record and Radnički’s poor away finishing point towards a narrow Mačva victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Radnički Kragujevac scored an average of just 0.5 goals per match and failed to score in 50% of their games. Mačva Šabac kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and conceded only 0.5 goals on average, further limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The seasonal BTTS rate stands at 50% for the home side but only 25% for Radnički, compared with a league average of 38%, meaning the visitors’ profile clearly lowers the probability of both teams scoring. The last five matches produced BTTS in 40% of games for each side; however, Mačva scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, creating a significant risk that one team will fail to score. The hosts have the attacking edge, averaging 18.0 shots and recording an xG of 2.01, so their one-sided contribution to the result is more likely than an open exchange of goals.

At home, Mačva averaged 2.01 xG and 5.5 shots on target per match, but their last five games produced only 0.8 goals per match. Radnički scored 1.4 goals in their last five matches from 1.71 xG, while Mačva’s recently weaker defense allowed opponents 2.14 xG, meaning the visitors should have a realistic chance of scoring. At the same time, neither team has recorded a match with at least four goals in the current season data, and both teams have seen 100% of their matches finish Under 3.5 goals. The Under 3.5 line therefore has the strongest support based on their results profile, even though the projected total of 2.50 goals leaves the Over/Under 2.5 line finely balanced.

The strongest scenario is Radnički Kragujevac leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, as the visitors led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Mačva did so only once. In the same sample, Radnički averaged 0.8 goals before the break—four times Mačva’s 0.2—while the hosts failed to score before half-time in 80% of their matches. Current form also favours the visitors: Radnički have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals per game, compared with Mačva’s 0.8. The hosts do have very strong home figures across the full dataset, with 2 wins from 2 and an average of 2.5 goals, but this is a small sample and contradicts their recent form. Radnički’s second-half defence has also been effective, conceding an average of just 0.2 goals after the break in their last five matches, which increases the likelihood of them holding on to an early lead.