Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Niš: match statistics

Radnički Niš are showing clearly superior current form: they have collected 7 points in their last five matches, while Mačva Šabac have managed only 3, losing as many as 4 of those games. The hosts have conceded 12 goals and scored just 3 during this period, while their home xG against stands at a high 2.21 per match. Away from home, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.87 xG and register 5.67 shots on target per game, compared with Mačva’s 2 accurate attempts at home. Radnički’s defence concedes only 0.67 goals per away match and has kept a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances, which should limit the hosts despite their home advantage. The visitors’ low scoring output, averaging 0.67 goals away from home, increases the likelihood of a draw, but the overall quality of the arguments points towards a narrow victory for them.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Mačva Šabac’s very poor finishing: the hosts have yet to score and have averaged only 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches. At the same time, Radnički Niš has kept a clean sheet in 67% of its matches and concedes just 0.67 goals per game on average, clearly limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring. Mačva’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 0%, while Radnički’s is 33%, against a league average of just 35%, so the data does not point to regular goals from both sides. Although the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals and Radnički creates good chances with an xG of 1.87, the more likely scenario is that the visitors score while at least one team fails to find the net. The last five matches for both teams show 40% of games with goals from both sides, but Mačva’s low attacking output and the visitors’ solid defence outweigh this in favour of BTTS - No.

Mačva have scored just 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches, while their current xG stands at only 0.90, so despite playing at home, a significant attacking contribution from the hosts is difficult to expect. Radnički create more chances, averaging 1.85 xG and 5.67 shots on target, while Mačva’s weak defence has allowed opponents 2.24 xG across their last five appearances. However, the visitors are still averaging only 0.8 goals in this run, while they have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches over the season. Neither team has recorded a game above 3.5 goals in the available seasonal data, with the league average standing at a moderate 2.39 goals. The most likely scenario is one or two goals for Radnički and a limited response from the hosts, giving Under 3.5 a clear edge.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Radnički Niš were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while during this period both teams averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time. Mačva were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five games, conceding an average of 1.0 goal in the first half, whereas the visitors conceded just 0.6. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Radnički: they averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Mačva scored 0.4 and allowed their opponents 1.4 goals. The visitors are also in better form in terms of results, averaging 1.4 points per match over their last five league games compared with the hosts’ 0.6, while their 5.67 shots on target per match clearly surpasses Mačva’s 3.0.