Mačva Šabac vs Red Star Belgrade: match statistics

Red Star Belgrade are top of the table with a record of 12 wins and 1 draw in 13 matches, while Mačva Šabac sit 12th and have won just 2 games. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals in that span; the hosts have failed to win any of their games over the same period, scoring 4 goals and conceding 8. Away from home, Red Star win 83% of their matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and just 0.17 conceded—a stark contrast to Mačva’s home average of 0.83 goals. The visitors’ edge is further underlined by the quality of chances created: their away xG stands at 1.8, compared with the hosts’ 1.32 at home, and they average 5.83 shots on target against 3.17. Although Mačva keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, the season-long record and the visitors’ attacking efficiency clearly point to a Red Star win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No—that at least one team will fail to score—is the visitors’ defensive record: they keep a clean sheet in 83% of their away matches and concede an average of 0.17 goals there. Mačva have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 games, averaging 0.8 per match, while Red Star have scored 13 over the same period. However, the case for a home goal is supported by Mačva’s average home xG of 2.48 and the fact that they have failed to score in none of the home matches considered. Even so, BTTS - Yes has occurred in only 17% of Red Star’s away matches and 43% of Mačva’s home games, making it more likely that only one side will score.

In their last 5 matches, Mačva averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Red Star averaged 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. The visitors also have the edge in the quality of chances created: their average xG over this period stands at 2.06, compared with the hosts’ 1.16, which points to Red Star scoring at least one or two goals. A higher total is also supported by the fact that at least 3 goals were scored in 4 of the visitors’ last 5 matches, although this happened in only 2 of the hosts’ 5 games. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick: the projected total of 3.00 goals gives this line a clearer edge than the more demanding Over 2.5 goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a Red Star Belgrade win after 90 minutes is the most likely outcome, although the home and away data point to a closely contested match. Mačva Šabac led at the break in all 7 home matches analysed, but Red Star were not behind at half-time in any of their 6 away games, drawing 4 of them. Recent form favours the visitors: they have averaged 2.6 goals and won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the hosts have scored 0.8 goals on average and failed to win. The second half could be particularly important: Red Star have recently averaged 1.6 goals after the break, while Mačva have conceded 1.0 and scored just 0.2. This HT/FT selection still carries significant risk, as the hosts won all 7 home matches analysed, but their recent results point towards a second-half outcome in the visitors’ favour.