Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced confrontation heavily favoring a draw scenario. Madura United display average home form with a 29% win rate and an average of 1.43 goals per game, reflecting their 13th position in the table. Persebaya Surabaya are characterized by remarkable defensive solidity on the road—recording a 71% draw rate in away matches and conceding an average of just 0.71 goals, which is a very strong record. The recent form of both teams is identical (1.4 points per game in the last 5 matches), and the goal difference for both the hosts at home (0) and the visitors away (0) further confirms the parity. Given Persebaya's defensive style on their travels and Madura's average efficacy in front of their home crowd, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome of this fixture.
Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Madura United play Persebaya Surabaya in Liga 1 (Indonesia). The match date is 3 January 2026 at 13:00. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Madura United: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Persebaya Surabaya: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Madura United scores 1.09 and concedes 1.59 goals per match. Persebaya Surabaya scores 1.79 and concedes 1.03. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Madura United 56%, Persebaya Surabaya 50%. Over 2.5: Madura United 56%, Persebaya Surabaya 53%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Persebaya Surabaya has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.28. Madura United: 10.6 shots per match, Persebaya Surabaya: 12.3.
Match halves
Madura United: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.56. Persebaya Surabaya: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.24.
Goals by minute
Madura United: 31-45+ (9 goals). Persebaya Surabaya: 76-90+ (20 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 1: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced confrontation heavily favoring a draw scenario. Madura United display average home form with a 29% win rate and an average of 1.43 goals per game, reflecting their 13th position in the table. Persebaya Surabaya are characterized by remarkable defensive solidity on the road—recording a 71% draw rate in away matches and conceding an average of just 0.71 goals, which is a very strong record. The recent form of both teams is identical (1.4 points per game in the last 5 matches), and the goal difference for both the hosts at home (0) and the visitors away (0) further confirms the parity. Given Persebaya's defensive style on their travels and Madura's average efficacy in front of their home crowd, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome of this fixture.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Madura United | Persebaya Surabaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Persebaya Surabaya is 44% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Madura United · 2.6 pts / match - Persebaya Surabaya
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Persebaya Surabaya is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
1.09 goals / match - Madura United · 1.79 goals / match - Persebaya Surabaya
Persebaya Surabaya is 54% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.59 goals / match - Madura United · 1.03 goals / match - Persebaya Surabaya
Madura United scores in 68% of matches (23 of 34 matches), while Persebaya Surabaya keeps a clean sheet in 41% (14 of 34 matches).
Persebaya Surabaya scores in 85% of matches (29 of 34 matches), while Madura United keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Madura United
Over / Under — Persebaya Surabaya
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Madura United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 26%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Persebaya Surabaya - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +16 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Madura United
Persebaya Surabaya
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 1).
Teams vs league
| Madura United | Liga | Persebaya Surabaya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.68 | 2.80 | • 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | • 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 27% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 81% | • 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Madura United 1 - 0 - 0 Persebaya Surabaya. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
The Liga 1 match finished Madura United 0:1 Persebaya Surabaya. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Madura United score 1.09 goals per game on average and Persebaya Surabaya 1.79. The Liga 1 average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Madura United's matches and 50% of Persebaya Surabaya's.
What form are Madura United and Persebaya Surabaya in?
Over the last 5 games Madura United have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Persebaya Surabaya 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.