Madura United vs Persik Kediri: match statistics

Madura United has a clear advantage in chance creation: home xG 1.54 vs Persik 1.16, average shots 12.85 vs 9.15 and shots on target 4 vs 3, and goals per game 1.08 vs 0.77, all favoring the hosts. However, Madura’s form is poor — in the last 5 matches they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring only 5 and conceding 16 (3.2 per game), yielding just 0.2 points per game; Persik in their last 5 have 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, 6 scored and 10 conceded and 0.8 points per game. This season Madura concede 1.62 goals per home game, while Persik concede 2.08 away; both teams have a similar shot conversion around 8% and an identical share of clean-sheet-less matches at 38%. In practice this means the hosts create more opportunities (xG 1.54 vs 1.16, 12.85 vs 9.15 shots), but their recent 16 conceded goals increase the risk of a draw or defeat, so I cautiously favor an open match with Madura as the preferred side. I assign a 45% chance to Madura win, 30% to draw and 25% to Persik win.

Madura United has BTTS in 92% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, while Persik Kediri records 54% seasonally and 60% in the last 5, indicating a tilt towards a both-teams-to-score scenario. The hosts average 1.69 goals per game (xG 1.69) and register 5.38 shots on target, and Persik concedes on average 2.08 goals this season (xG against 1.63), so Madura are strong candidates to score. Persik’s season average goals scored is only 0.77 (xG_for 1.16) with 38% of matches goalless for them, which lowers confidence in their scoring, but in the last 5 away matches the visitors averaged 1.2 goals and had 60% BTTS. Additionally, both teams have only 8% clean sheets this season, and Madura conceded an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood Persik will find the net. Considering 92% vs 54% seasonal BTTS, xG 1.69 vs 1.63 and recent average goals conceded 3.2 (Madura) and 2.0 (Persik), I assign 80% probability to BTTS - Yes and 20% to No Goal.

Both teams have 92% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, and average xG is 1.69 for Madura and 1.16 for Persik, which translates to expected 1.66 goals for the home side and 1.25 for the visitors (total 2.91). Madura averages 5.38 shots on target with a 14% conversion, Persik has 3.0 shots on target and 8% conversion, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Season share of matches over 2.5 is 69% for both teams, and in the last 5 matches Madura had 100% over 2.5 and Persik 80%, so Over 2.5 has clear results-based support. The theoretical xG distribution (total 2.91) suggests roughly a 55% chance of 3+ goals and about 33% for 4+ goals, therefore the 3.5 line is significantly riskier than 1.5; the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Madura United has a clear offensive advantage: on average 1.69 goals per match versus Persik Kediri’s 0.77; the home side’s xG is 1.69 compared to the visitors’ 1.16, and they register 5.38 shots on target versus 3.00. In the first half Madura scores on average 1.00 goal while Persik only 0.23; the hosts led at the break in 5 matches (38%) versus just 2 (15%) for the visitors, which favors the hosts taking a lead at the break. Over the full distance Madura win at home in 46% of matches (6 wins) with 15% losses, so retention of the lead by the hosts is likely — therefore HT/FT 1/1 is the strongest signal and I estimate its probability at about 31%. Alternative scenarios are draw/draw (X/X) at ~23% and draw at half then home win (X/1) ~8%, while Persik wins (1/2, 2/2) are unlikely given their 0.77 goals per match and 2.08 conceded.