Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: match statistics
Mainz 05 performs significantly better at home than Hamburger SV does away. The hosts have a goal difference of -1 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game with a -12 goal difference. Mainz is in excellent form with three wins in their last five matches overall, whereas Hamburg has not won any of their last five away matches. The xG statistics also favor the hosts: 1.5 xG For compared to the guests' 1.25 xG For away. Hamburg has only a 10% away win rate and as many as 50% of their matches end without scoring a goal, which significantly reduces their chances. Considering Mainz's home advantage and Hamburg's poor away form, the hosts have a realistic chance of triumph.
Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mainz 05 played Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 20 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mainz 05: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Hamburger SV: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mainz 05 scores 1.14 and concedes 1.68 goals per match. Hamburger SV scores 1.14 and concedes 1.48. League average: 3.19 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mainz 05 55%, Hamburger SV 52%. Over 2.5: Mainz 05 55%, Hamburger SV 52%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Hamburger SV has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.32. Mainz 05: 11.1 shots per match, Hamburger SV: 13.1.
Match halves
Mainz 05: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.64. Hamburger SV: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Mainz 05: 61-75 (6 goals). Hamburger SV: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.19 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mainz 05 performs significantly better at home than Hamburger SV does away. The hosts have a goal difference of -1 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game with a -12 goal difference. Mainz is in excellent form with three wins in their last five matches overall, whereas Hamburg has not won any of their last five away matches. The xG statistics also favor the hosts: 1.5 xG For compared to the guests' 1.25 xG For away. Hamburg has only a 10% away win rate and as many as 50% of their matches end without scoring a goal, which significantly reduces their chances. Considering Mainz's home advantage and Hamburg's poor away form, the hosts have a realistic chance of triumph.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hamburger SV is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.68 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 1.48 goals / match - Hamburger SV
Mainz 05 scores in 59% of matches (13 of 22 matches), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
Hamburger SV scores in 62% of matches (13 of 21 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 9% (2 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Hamburger SV
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 23%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hamburger SV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.82 | 3.19 | ▼ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 58% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 63% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 24% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 77% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 83% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mainz 05 0 - 0 - 1 Hamburger SV. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 1:1 Hamburger SV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Mainz 05 score 1.14 goals per game on average and Hamburger SV 1.14. The Bundesliga average is 3.19 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Mainz 05's matches and 52% of Hamburger SV's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Hamburger SV 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.