Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg: match statistics
Mainz 05 occupies a difficult 17th position in the table with just an 11% win rate at home, but recently shows improved form (2 wins in the last 5 matches, 1.6 PPG). Wolfsburg presents unstable form on the road with 50% losses and a high average of conceded goals (2.13 per match), though they finish actions more effectively (14% shot conversion vs 6% for Mainz). Both teams have a negative goal difference at their own venues (-5 Mainz, -6 Wolfsburg), suggesting a balanced rivalry. Considering similar xG values (1.42 vs 1.1 for the visitors), the high average of total goals in Wolfsburg's away matches (3.5), and the hosts' recent improvement in form, a draw or a narrow victory for one side seems most probable. Statistics indicate even chances with a slight advantage for the hosts playing in front of their own crowd.
Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mainz 05 played Wolfsburg in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Mainz 05: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Wolfsburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mainz 05 scores 1.00 and concedes 1.72 goals per match. Wolfsburg scores 1.50 and concedes 2.11. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mainz 05 56%, Wolfsburg 78%. Over 2.5: Mainz 05 50%, Wolfsburg 67%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Wolfsburg has higher xG: 1.36 vs 1.27. Mainz 05: 10.8 shots per match, Wolfsburg: 11.9.
Match halves
Mainz 05: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.50. Wolfsburg: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Mainz 05: 16-30 (4 goals). Wolfsburg: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mainz 05 occupies a difficult 17th position in the table with just an 11% win rate at home, but recently shows improved form (2 wins in the last 5 matches, 1.6 PPG). Wolfsburg presents unstable form on the road with 50% losses and a high average of conceded goals (2.13 per match), though they finish actions more effectively (14% shot conversion vs 6% for Mainz). Both teams have a negative goal difference at their own venues (-5 Mainz, -6 Wolfsburg), suggesting a balanced rivalry. Considering similar xG values (1.42 vs 1.1 for the visitors), the high average of total goals in Wolfsburg's away matches (3.5), and the hosts' recent improvement in form, a draw or a narrow victory for one side seems most probable. Statistics indicate even chances with a slight advantage for the hosts playing in front of their own crowd.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wolfsburg is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Mainz 05 · 1.4 pts / match - Wolfsburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wolfsburg is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 1.5 goals / match - Wolfsburg
Mainz 05 is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.72 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 2.11 goals / match - Wolfsburg
Mainz 05 scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Wolfsburg keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
Wolfsburg scores in 83% of matches (15 of 18 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Wolfsburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 11%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Wolfsburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.72 | 3.24 | ▲ 3.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 56% | 58% | ▲ 78% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 6% | 24% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▲ 94% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 82% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mainz 05 0 - 1 - 0 Wolfsburg. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 3:1 Wolfsburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?
Mainz 05 score 1.00 goals per game on average and Wolfsburg 1.50. The Bundesliga average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Mainz 05's matches and 78% of Wolfsburg's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Wolfsburg in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Wolfsburg 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.