Málaga CF vs Ceuta: match statistics
Málaga CF displays significantly superior home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive run in their last five matches (three wins). The hosts average 1.9 goals per home game, failing to score in just 10% of matches, indicating an effective offense. Ceuta shows poor away results with only a 20% win rate and a negative goal difference (-6), averaging just 1 goal on the road and failing to score in 40% of matches. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.72 vs 1.07), while the advantage in possession (51% vs 48%) and a significantly higher number of shots on target (6.1 vs 2.7) further reinforce Málaga's position. Considering all factors, a home win is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' solid defense (30% clean sheets) could potentially lead to a draw.
Málaga CF vs Ceuta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Málaga CF played Ceuta in Segunda División (Spain). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Málaga CF: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Ceuta: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Málaga CF scores 1.45 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Ceuta scores 1.20 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Málaga CF 60%, Ceuta 50%. Over 2.5: Málaga CF 55%, Ceuta 45%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Málaga CF has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.25. Málaga CF: 12.6 shots per match, Ceuta: 10.7.
Match halves
Málaga CF: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.85. Ceuta: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Málaga CF: 46-60 (8 goals). Ceuta: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Segunda División: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Málaga CF displays significantly superior home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive run in their last five matches (three wins). The hosts average 1.9 goals per home game, failing to score in just 10% of matches, indicating an effective offense. Ceuta shows poor away results with only a 20% win rate and a negative goal difference (-6), averaging just 1 goal on the road and failing to score in 40% of matches. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.72 vs 1.07), while the advantage in possession (51% vs 48%) and a significantly higher number of shots on target (6.1 vs 2.7) further reinforce Málaga's position. Considering all factors, a home win is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' solid defense (30% clean sheets) could potentially lead to a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Málaga CF | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Málaga CF is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.45 goals / match - Málaga CF · 1.2 goals / match - Ceuta
Málaga CF scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Ceuta keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 matches).
Ceuta scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Málaga CF keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Málaga CF
Over / Under - Ceuta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Málaga CF is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / match - Málaga CF · 1.25 pts / match - Ceuta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Málaga CF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ceuta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Málaga CF
Ceuta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Segunda División).
Teams vs league
| Málaga CF | Liga | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.70 | 2.56 | ▼ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 49% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 66% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 75% | ▼ 55% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
The Segunda División match finished Málaga CF 2:1 Ceuta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
Málaga CF score 1.45 goals per game on average and Ceuta 1.20. The Segunda División average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Málaga CF's matches and 50% of Ceuta's.
What form are Málaga CF and Ceuta in?
Over the last 5 games Málaga CF have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Ceuta 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
The statistical background for Málaga CF vs Ceuta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.