Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi: match statistics

Malavan sit 6th, two places above Fajr Sepasi, and remain unbeaten in the current campaign after recording 1 win and 1 draw. The hosts are particularly dangerous at home: they won their only home match so far, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1. Fajr Sepasi are also unbeaten this season, but both of their matches ended in draws, while away from home they average 1 goal scored per match and 1 conceded. In their last five matches, Malavan have collected 1.6 points per game and scored 5 goals, whereas the visitors have managed just 1 point per game and 3 goals scored. Home advantage and slightly greater attacking consistency point to a Malavan win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given Fajr Sepasi’s cautious away profile.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is the league’s very low-scoring profile: only 33% of matches see both teams score, while the average is just 1.78 goals per game. Fajr Sepasi have averaged only 0.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Malavan have conceded just 0.8 goals per game during the same period, limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Both teams have recently averaged 0.8 goals conceded per match, while their BTTS rates across their last five appearances stand at 60% for Malavan and 40% for Fajr Sepasi, providing no clear, strong confirmation of a Goal/Goal scenario. The seasonal data is based on a very limited sample and is partly inconsistent, so greater weight should be given to the visitors’ low offensive output and the distinctly defensive nature of the competition, pointing towards a result in which at least one team fails to score.

This match fits the league’s very low-scoring profile, with an average of just 1.78 goals and only 17% of matches going Over 2.5 goals. In their last five appearances, Malavan averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Fajr Sepasi averaged 0.6 goals scored and also 0.8 conceded. Both teams had only 20% of matches featuring at least three goals during this period, clearly limiting the likelihood of an open, end-to-end game. Additionally, as many as 89% of matches in the competition end with at least one team keeping a clean sheet, while both teams score in just 33% of matches. The 1.50-goal projection provides the strongest edge on Under 3.5 goals, as this bet only loses if at least four goals are scored.

The strongest case is for a draw at half-time followed by a Malavan victory in the match, as the hosts have been level at the break in 60% of their last five fixtures, while Fajr Sepasi have done so in as many as 80%. Both teams' first halves are highly uneventful: Malavan average 0.4 goals before the break, and Fajr also average 0.4, with respective average totals of 0.8 and 0.6 goals. After half-time, the advantage shifts to the hosts, who have averaged 0.6 goals scored in their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Fajr, while also conceding 0.6. Malavan also have the stronger results-based form, averaging 1.6 points per match with a 40% win rate, compared with Fajr Sepasi's 1.0 points per match, 20% win rate and 40% loss rate. The low average goal totals—1.8 for Malavan and 1.4 for the visitors—also increase the likelihood of the match remaining level for a significant period before a late home-team turnaround.