Malmö FF vs Kalmar: match statistics

Malmö FF are the favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding 4, while Kalmar have failed to win and have not scored during that period. At home, the hosts average 2.18 goals per match with an xG of 1.89, while the visitors concede an average of 1.73 goals away from home. The biggest difference lies in finishing: Kalmar score just 0.64 goals per away match and have failed to score in 64% of such games, despite an xG of 1.57. Malmö are not flawless defensively, however, conceding an average of 1.82 goals at home, which gives the visitors a chance to get on the scoresheet. The hosts’ advantage is primarily underlined by the contrast between their goal-scoring record and Kalmar’s away form, with the visitors having lost 82% of their matches on the road.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring comes from Kalmar: they have failed to score in each of their last 5 matches, despite averaging 1.52 xG. Across the season, the visitors have failed to score in 64% of their matches and have averaged just 0.64 goals, while Malmö have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their games. The hosts have scored 10 goals in their last 5 appearances, and Kalmar have conceded 8 over that period, so a Malmö goal looks considerably more likely. However, the season-long BTTS rates are only 45% for Malmö and 36% for Kalmar, with the visitors' rate falling to 0% across their last 5 matches. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that Malmö score while Kalmar fail to find the net—BTTS - No.

In both teams’ matches this season, fewer than 4 goals were scored in 73% of cases, making Under 3.5 goals the line most strongly supported by the data. Malmö scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches, but Kalmar failed to score in that same period, limiting the chances of a high-scoring game for both teams. The visitors average 0.64 goals per game across the season and have failed to score in 64% of their matches, while conceding an average of 1.73 goals. An expected total of 2.45 goals leaves room for a home win without the selected line being exceeded; fewer than 3 goals were scored in 64% of Kalmar’s matches, but in only 36% of Malmö’s, making the 2.5 line less convincing.

A half-time draw is more likely than Malmö taking an early lead: Kalmar were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and did not score in the first half in any of them. Malmö led at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches, so despite the hosts’ advantage, X/1 looks more likely than 1/1. The difference after half-time is clear: over the same period, Malmö scored an average of 1.6 goals in second halves, while Kalmar failed to score in any and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. The hosts won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors lost 4, which points to a Malmö win after a closely contested first half.