Marek vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

Marek have won 4 of their 5 home matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game, while CSKA Sofia II win 43% of their away matches and average 1.14 goals scored. At home, the hosts create chances worth 1.61 xG per match, while the visitors allow chances worth 1.42 xG on the road, which points to Marek getting on the scoresheet. However, the league leaders remain a threat: they have scored 11 goals and gone unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while Marek have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. The visitors’ defence concede just 0.57 goals per away match, so despite the hosts’ strong record, Marek’s advantage is not substantial. Home advantage and greater attacking efficiency on their own turf tilt the prediction in their favour.

The more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score, primarily due to CSKA Sofia II’s inconsistent finishing. The visitors have failed to score in 43% of their matches, and their average of 1.14 goals is well below Marek’s 3.0 goals. The case for BTTS - No is also supported by the difference in the frequency of matches in which both teams scored: 29% for CSKA Sofia II compared with 67% for Marek, although the figure was 40% for each team across their last five matches. The main risk to this prediction is the visitors’ improved attack, averaging 2.2 goals over their last five matches. However, Marek have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while CSKA Sofia II concede an average of just 0.57 goals, so at least one team failing to score remains the slightly stronger scenario.

Marek average 1.56 xG at home and registers 6.33 shots on target per match, providing a basis to expect at least one goal from the hosts. CSKA Sofia II average 1.31 xG away, although they concede just 0.57 goals per match on the road, so Marek’s scoring potential warrants a more cautious assessment than their average of 3.0 goals scored at home suggests. The 1.5 line has been cleared in 83% of Marek’s home matches, but in only 43% of CSKA Sofia II’s away matches; at the same time, both teams have gone Over 2.5 in 60% of their last five matches. An estimated 2.70 goals gives the Over 1.5 goals bet an edge, while the signal is less clear at the 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

CSKA Sofia II were level at half-time in 4 of their 7 away matches, conceding an average of just 0.14 goals in the first halves of those games. This makes a draw at the break more likely than either side taking an early lead. The visitors have also kept a first-half clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches. Their recent form after the break has been stronger: they averaged 1.0 goals in the second halves of their last 5 games, while Marek averaged 0.2 over the same period. There is significant risk attached to the X/2 pick, as Marek have lost none of their 6 home matches and scored an average of 3.0 goals in them, although their average xG was 1.56. Despite the hosts' strong record, the visitors' better recent form—3 wins in 5 matches compared with Marek's 2—gives the scenario of a half-time draw followed by a CSKA Sofia II win a slight edge over the other outcomes.