Maribor vs Bravo: match statistics

Maribor remain unbeaten in their last five league matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Bravo have collected just 5 points over the same period with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The hosts have won both of their home fixtures, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding none, while their opponents average 1.33 goals away from home. Maribor allow just 0.84 xG at home, whereas Bravo allow their opponents as much as 2.26 xG per away match, indicating significantly greater pressure on the visitors’ defence. Bravo take more shots away from home—15.67 compared with Maribor’s 8.5 at home—but convert only 9% of their attempts, compared with the hosts’ efficiency of nearly 29%. Home advantage, a solid defence and greater efficiency in front of goal all point towards a Maribor win, although Bravo’s strong away form could increase the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Maribor’s highly solid defensive record over their last five matches, in which they conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, with opponents registering an xG of 1.02. Bravo scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period and have failed to score in 33% of their matches this season. On the other hand, Maribor have struggled with finishing: they average 0.5 goals at home, convert only 3% of their shots, and have failed to find the net in 50% of their matches. Bravo have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, further increasing the likelihood of the hosts drawing another blank. Although both teams create chances with relatively high xG, their season-long BTTS rates stand at just 50% for Maribor and 33% for Bravo, below the league average of 54%.

The strongest signal is the low 3.5-goal line: neither Maribor nor Bravo has exceeded it in any of their league matches so far, meaning that 100% of both teams’ games have finished Under 3.5 goals. Maribor conceded just 0.4 goals per match in their last five outings, while Bravo scored only 0.8, which limits the visitors’ attacking potential. Expected goals based on recent form are moderate: Maribor’s xG stands at 1.23 and Bravo’s at 1.56, while the hosts have allowed opponents just 1.02 xG. The projected total of 2.40 goals suggests a realistic chance of two or three goals, but clearly does not support a scenario with at least four goals.

Bravo have a clearly superior away record: they average 1.33 goals scored, concede just 0.33, and earn 2.33 points per match, while Maribor score 0.50 goals at home and allow opponents 2.00. The visitors were leading at the break in 2 of their 3 away matches and conceded no first-half goals, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in both of their home games, scoring 0 goals in those matches. Bravo kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, while Maribor have failed to do so even once, further supporting the scenario of an early advantage for the visitors. Maribor’s stronger recent form, with 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match across their last five appearances, reduces confidence in the prediction; however, Bravo’s away data still provides the strongest support for an HT/FT outcome of the visitors leading at half-time and securing the final victory (2/2).