Mariehamn vs Jaro: match statistics

Mariehamn sit 12th but are showing significantly better current form than Jaro: they have collected 7 points and scored 7 goals in their last five matches, while the visitors have earned 3 points and managed just 3 goals. The hosts’ advantage is reinforced by their home statistics, where they lose 50% of their matches, whereas Jaro suffer defeat in as many as 80% of away fixtures and have not won a single match. Jaro score just 0.4 goals per game away from home, fail to score in 70% of such appearances, and concede an average of 2.6 goals. Mariehamn also have defensive issues, allowing opponents an xG of 2.16 per home match, but their attack is more effective than Jaro’s away performance: 0.7 goals and an xG of 1.14 compared with the visitors’ 0.4 goals. A closely contested match between two teams from the lower part of the table is expected, but Jaro’s poor form and highly inefficient away performances support a narrow Mariehamn victory.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Jaro’s very limited attacking efficiency: the visitors score an average of just 0.40 goals per match and have failed to score in 70% of their games. In their last five matches, Jaro scored only 3 goals, averaging 0.60 per game, despite creating chances worth an average of 1.32 xG. Mariehamn concede an average of 1.45 goals but keep a clean sheet in 18% of matches, while Jaro’s poor shot conversion rate of 3% increases the likelihood that the hosts will keep a clean sheet. Mariehamn’s season-long BTTS rate is high at 64%, but Jaro’s stands at just 30%, while both teams recorded 40% over their last five league fixtures, below the league figure of 50%. The hosts should have good opportunities to score against a Jaro defence conceding 2.60 goals per match, but the more likely outcome is one in which at least one team, primarily the visitors, fails to find the net.

Mariehamn average 1.46 xG, while Jaro allow opponents 1.73 xG and concede as many as 2.60 goals per game, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. At the same time, Jaro score only 0.40 goals per game, have netted 3 goals in their last five matches, and failed to score in 70% of their appearances. The 1.5-goal line was surpassed in 73% of Mariehamn matches and 90% of Jaro matches, but the case for a higher goal total is weaker. Only 27% of the hosts’ matches and 30% of the visitors’ matches finished Over 3.5 goals, while 73% and 70% respectively stayed Under this line. The projected total of 2.45 goals therefore points to a game with a realistic chance of 2-3 goals, while Under 3.5 is best supported by Jaro’s limited attacking output and the seasonal trends of both teams.

Mariehamn are clearly stronger in the first halves: they have led at the break in 45% of their matches, while Jaro have been trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 60%. The hosts average 0.91 goals scored and 0.55 conceded before half-time, whereas Jaro score just 0.30 goals during this period and concede 1.20. The difference is also reflected in their recent form, with Mariehamn leading at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 out of 5 for Jaro. Across the season, the hosts average 1.27 goals per match, while the visitors manage only 0.40, and Jaro’s defence concedes as many as 2.60 goals per game. The most likely scenario is therefore Mariehamn leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to the final whistle.