Mariehamn vs VPS: match statistics
Mariehamn vs VPS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mariehamn played VPS in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Mariehamn: 0-2-2, 0.50 points/match. VPS: 1-2-1, 1.25 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mariehamn scores 0.75 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. VPS scores 0.75 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mariehamn 50%, VPS 25%. Over 2.5: Mariehamn 50%, VPS 25%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
VPS has higher xG: 1.19 vs 0.93. Mariehamn: 7.5 shots per match, VPS: 10.0.
Match halves
Mariehamn: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25. VPS: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.00.
Goals by minute
Mariehamn: 31-45+ (2 goals). VPS: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The hosts have a clear advantage in the quality and volume of chances: they average 11.5 shots and 4.5 on target per home match, while VPS averages 5 shots and 1 on target away. Mariehamn scores 1.5 goals at home on average and has 0% FTS (always score), whereas VPS averages 0 goals away and 100% FTS, which strongly indicates the visitors’ finishing issues on the road. In xG terms the hosts have 1.33 xG at home versus 0.7 xG for VPS away; concurrently Mariehamn’s xG against is 1.66 and VPS’s xG against is 1.45, so the hosts create more chances while also exposing themselves slightly at the back. VPS, however, shows better recent form overall (PPG 2.0 in the last 5 matches vs 1.4 for Mariehamn) and defends effectively away (conceding 0.5 goals on average and 50% clean sheets), so an upset is possible. Considering Mariehamn’s superiority in shot volume, accuracy and xG and VPS’s complete lack of offensive output away, I tip 1; probability split: 60% home win, 25% draw, 15% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I forecast BTTS - Yes with probability 70% vs 30%. The strongest signal is VPS form: 23 goals scored in the last 5 matches (avg. 4.6 goals/match) and 5-match xG of 1.71, while Mariehamn conceded on average 1.4 goals in the same period and has xG against 1.72, indicating the visitors have realistic chances to score. Season-long data are mixed – season BTTS for Mariehamn is 50% and for VPS 0%, and the season xG for the away side is only 0.7, but the short-term scoring advantage of VPS (23 goals vs 9 goals for Mariehamn in the last 5) outweighs that signal. Additionally, the league average BTTS is 54%, which, combined with 7 goals conceded by the hosts in their last five matches, points toward a both teams to score scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected xG as the average of the home attack and the opponent’s defense: (1.69 + 1.45)/2 = 1.57 xG for Mariehamn and (0.70 + 1.66)/2 = 1.18 xG for VPS, totaling 2.75. This 2.75 exceeds the league average of 2.42 by 0.33, increasing the probability of Over 2.5 goals. Mariehamn averages 15 shots and 5 on target with a 10% conversion (translating to ~1.5 goals), while VPS, despite a seasonal goals average of 0.0, has been very prolific in the last 5 matches — 23 goals (4.6 per game). Both teams concede high xG against: Mariehamn 1.66 and VPS 1.45, indicating weaker defensive coverage and more goal-scoring opportunities. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (I propose Over 2.5: 68% vs 32%), while Over 1.5 is even more likely (84%) and Over 3.5 remains moderate (42%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mariehamn has a clear advantage in the first half: they lead at the break in 50% of matches (1 out of 2), score an average of 1.5 goals by half-time and have a total of 3 HT goals, while VPS has an average of 0.0 goals by half-time and 0 HT goals. Full-match statistics also favor the hosts: the hosts’ xG is 1.69 versus 0.70 for VPS, average shots 15 versus 5 and shots on target 5 versus 1, indicating substantially more chances for Mariehamn. The visitors have a season average of 0.0 goals scored and a conversion rate of 0.0%, with an average of 0.5 goals conceded, so the likelihood of VPS breaking their scoring drought is low. Considering the hosts’ 50% leads at the break, higher xG and shot numbers, and Mariehamn’s season points form (2.0 points per game versus 0.5 for VPS), the strongest signal is Mariehamn to lead at half-time and win the match (1/1), which I assess at 52%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mariehamn | VPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
VPS is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.5 pts / match - Mariehamn · 1.25 pts / match - VPS
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
VPS is 133% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.75 goals / match - Mariehamn · 0.75 goals / match - VPS
Mariehamn scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while VPS keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
VPS scores in 25% of matches (1 of 4 matches), while Mariehamn keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mariehamn
Over / Under - VPS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
VPS is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Mariehamn · 1.5 pts / match - VPS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mariehamn - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
VPS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 0% |
| No goal | 50% | 75% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 25% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 50% |
| No goal | 75% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mariehamn
VPS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Mariehamn | Liga | VPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.50 | 2.41 | ▼ 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | • 75% | 74% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 81% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Mariehamn 1 - 1 - 1 VPS. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mariehamn vs VPS?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Mariehamn 0:1 VPS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Mariehamn won 1, VPS won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn score 0.75 goals per game on average and VPS 0.75. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Mariehamn's matches and 25% of VPS's.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Over the last 5 games Mariehamn have a 0-2-2 record (0.50 points per game) and VPS 1-2-1 (1.25 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mariehamn vs VPS?
The statistical background for Mariehamn vs VPS — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.