Marines vs Etincelles: match statistics
Marines vs Etincelles: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Marines played Etincelles in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Marines: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Etincelles: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Marines scores 1.32 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Etincelles scores 0.74 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Marines 55%, Etincelles 55%. Over 2.5: Marines 42%, Etincelles 32%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
xG, shots and style
Etincelles has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.16. Marines: 6.9 shots per match, Etincelles: 7.8.
Match halves
Marines: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.48. Etincelles: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.29.
Goals by minute
Marines: 31-45+ (15 goals). Etincelles: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.07 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Marines sit 8th and win 43% of home matches; at home they score 1.36 goals and concede 1.00 per game, with xG for 0.99 and xG against 0.94, and a shot conversion rate of 16%. Etincelles are 17th, winning only 7% of away games and drawing 53%; they average 0.87 goals away with xG 1.22, but their conversion is only 10% and in 33% of away matches they fail to score. In the last 5 fixtures Marines scored 7 goals and average 0.8 points per game (1W-1D-3L), while Etincelles scored 5 goals and average 1.2 points per game (1W-3D-1L), which shows greater consistency from the visitors despite poor away efficiency. The visitors register more shots (avg. 8.47, 2.73 on target) than the hosts (6.82, 2.18 on target), however lower conversion and a higher average of goals conceded away (1.6 vs 1.0) represent a significant advantage for Marines. Considering the higher home efficiency (conversion 16% vs 10%), the lower share of matches without a goal for Marines (14% vs 33%) and Etincelles’ frequent away draws (53%), I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'Yes' (BTTS) at 60% vs 40% for 'No' because the statistical profiles of both teams favor goals from both sides. Etincelles have a season BTTS rate of 67% vs Marines' 44%, and in the last 5 matches it's 60% vs 40% respectively, giving the visitors an edge for BTTS. Both teams produce similar xG: 1.24 (Marines) and 1.22 (Etincelles), which translates to estimated probabilities of scoring at least one goal of about 71% and 70% (1 - e^{-xG}). Despite low season average goals of 0.63 (Marines) and 0.87 (Etincelles), Marines have averaged 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches, and both teams concede an average of 1.4 goals, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Additionally, Etincelles have only 13% clean sheets vs 38% for Marines, and shots on target 3.31 vs 2.73 confirm that the BTTS scenario is stronger.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Marines average 0.63 goals per season, Etincelles 0.87, but xG is 1.24 (Marines) and 1.22 (Etincelles), giving a combined xG of 2.46 which points close to 2.5 expected goals. Etincelles concede 1.6 goals per game season-to-date, Marines 0.81; in the last 5 matches xG_for is 1.05 (Marines) and 1.32 (Etincelles), indicating an increase in chance creation. Season percentages for matches over 1.5 goals are 50% (Marines) and 80% (Etincelles), and over 0.5 occurred in 69%/87% of games, boosting the probability of at least two goals. Over 2.5 is less clear: season rates are 25%/40% for the two teams and 37% in the league, but the last 5 matches show over2.5 at 60% for both sides, so I estimate over2.5 at around 47%. Marines average 9.0 shots with 3.31 on target and 8% conversion, Etincelles 8.47 shots with 2.73 on target and 10% conversion, meaning xG is higher than season goals due to moderate finishing. As a result the strongest signal is over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5), since combined expected goals are 2.46, high over1.5 shares of 50%/80% and below-par finishing favor at least two goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X): Marines draw at the break in 69% of matches, and the overall full-time draw rate is 50% for Marines and 53% for Etincelles. Marines score an average of 0.44 goals by half-time and concede only 0.19, keeping a clean sheet at the break in 81% of games, which suggests many goalless or tied first halves. Etincelles concede an average of 1.6 goals per match and 0.79 by half-time and are trailing at the break in 50% of games, demonstrating their instability and lower ability to execute a turnaround. The teams’ xG is nearly identical (1.24 vs 1.22), and shots on target (3.31 vs 2.73) give only a slight advantage to the home side—insufficient to materially reduce the frequency of draws; therefore X/X (40%) is the most reliable option, with alternatives X/1 (21%) and 1/1 (17%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Marines | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Etincelles is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Marines · 1.2 pts / match - Etincelles
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Marines is 78% better for: goals scored per match.
1.32 goals / match - Marines · 0.74 goals / match - Etincelles
Marines scores in 81% of matches (25 of 31 matches), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Etincelles scores in 58% of matches (18 of 31 matches), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Marines
Over / Under - Etincelles
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Marines is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.74 pts / match - Marines · 1.19 pts / match - Etincelles
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Marines - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 35%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Marines
Etincelles
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Marines | Liga | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.52 | 2.07 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 45% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 42% | 37% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 35% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 61% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Marines 1 - 0 - 0 Etincelles. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Marines vs Etincelles?
The National Soccer League match finished Marines 2:3 Etincelles. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Marines vs Etincelles?
Marines score 1.32 goals per game on average and Etincelles 0.74. The National Soccer League average is 2.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Marines's matches and 55% of Etincelles's.
What form are Marines and Etincelles in?
Over the last 5 games Marines have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Etincelles 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Marines vs Etincelles?
The statistical background for Marines vs Etincelles — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.