Rwanda - National Soccer LeagueStade UmugandaData current as of 21 October 2026

Marines vs Gasogi United: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Marines vs Gasogi United: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Marines play Gasogi United in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match date is 25 October 2026. Venue: Stade Umuganda.

Current form

Marines: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Gasogi United: 1-1-2, 1.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

Marines scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Gasogi United scores 0.50 and concedes 1.25. League average: 1.68 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Marines 25%, Gasogi United 25%. Over 2.5: Marines 50%, Gasogi United 0%. League level: BTTS 23%, Over 2.5 19%.

xG, shots and style

Marines has higher xG: 1.80 vs 1.75. Marines: 14.0 shots per match, Gasogi United: 15.0.

Match halves

Marines: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 0.75. Gasogi United: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.50.

Goals by minute

Marines: 31-45+ (3 goals). Gasogi United: 46-60 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

National Soccer League: 1.68 goals per match, BTTS 23%, Over 2.5 19%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(-)
(-)
(-)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

2Goals scored / match0.5
MarinesGasogi United
1Goals conceded / match1.25
MarinesGasogi United
51%Average possession45%
MarinesGasogi United
5.75Shots on target / match3.75
MarinesGasogi United

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

14Shots per match15
MarinesGasogi United
5.75Shots on target3.75
MarinesGasogi United
14.3%Shot conversion3.3%
MarinesGasogi United
51%Possession45%
MarinesGasogi United
1.8xG for1.75
MarinesGasogi United
1.31xG against1.63
MarinesGasogi United

Shooting quality

Marines: AttackingGasogi United: Attacking
MarinesGasogi United
Accuracy (shots on target)41%25%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.130.12
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.350.13

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Marines is 75% better for: last-5 form.

1.75 pts / match - Marines · 1 pts / match - Gasogi United

Marines
WLDW
Season result split
50% W25% D25% L
Season (W-D-L)
2-1-1
1.75 pts / match · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-1
1.75 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Last 5 at home
1-1-0
WD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.80Opponent xG: 1.31BTTS: 25%Over 2.5: 50%
Gasogi United
LWDL
Season result split
25% W25% D50% L
Season (W-D-L)
1-1-2
1.00 pts / match · goal difference -3
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-1-2
1.00 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Last 5 away
1-1-1
LWD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 0.5Goals conceded: 1.3xG: 1.75Opponent xG: 1.63BTTS: 25%Over 2.5: 0%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Marines is 300% better for: goals scored per match.

2 goals / match - Marines · 0.5 goals / match - Gasogi United

Marines is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.

1 goals / match - Marines · 1.25 goals / match - Gasogi United

Marines scoring profile: very strong

Marines scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Gasogi United keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).

Gasogi United scoring profile: more difficult

Gasogi United scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 75% (3 of 4 matches).

8Goals scored (season)2
MarinesGasogi United
4Goals conceded (season)5
MarinesGasogi United
3Average goals in match1.75
MarinesGasogi United
8Goals scored (last 5)2
MarinesGasogi United
4Goals conceded (last 5)5
MarinesGasogi United

How often they score at least...

75%1 goal50%
MarinesGasogi United
75%2 goals0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%3 goals0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%4 goals0%
MarinesGasogi United

How often they concede at least...

25%1 goal75%
MarinesGasogi United
25%2 goals50%
MarinesGasogi United
25%3 goals0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%4 goals0%
MarinesGasogi United

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

23%
League average

Goal patterns

25%BTTS at half-time0%
MarinesGasogi United
0%BTTS in both halves0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%Scored in both halves0%
MarinesGasogi United

BTTS and goal count

25%Min. 3 goals and BTTS0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%BTTS - last 525%
MarinesGasogi United

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

75%Min. 1 goal before half-time50%
MarinesGasogi United
50%Min. 2 goals before half-time0%
MarinesGasogi United
25%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%
MarinesGasogi United

2nd half

50%Min. 1 goal after half-time100%
MarinesGasogi United
50%Min. 2 goals after half-time25%
MarinesGasogi United
50%Min. 3 goals after half-time0%
MarinesGasogi United

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Marines is 400% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

2.5 pts / match - Marines · 0.5 pts / match - Gasogi United

Marines - half-time state
75% leading25% draw0% trailing
Gasogi United - half-time state
0% leading50% draw50% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

2.5Points per match (1st half)0.5
MarinesGasogi United
1.25Goals scored (1st half)0
MarinesGasogi United
0.25Goals conceded (1st half)0.5
MarinesGasogi United
1.5Average goals (1st half)0.5
MarinesGasogi United
75%Clean sheet before half-time50%
MarinesGasogi United
25%No goal before half-time100%
MarinesGasogi United

After half-time (2nd half)

1.25Points per match (2nd half)1.5
MarinesGasogi United
0.75Goals scored (2nd half)0.5
MarinesGasogi United
0.75Goals conceded (2nd half)0.75
MarinesGasogi United
1.5Average goals (2nd half)1.25
MarinesGasogi United
75%Clean sheet after half-time50%
MarinesGasogi United
75%No goal after half-time50%
MarinesGasogi United

Marines - second-half results

25% W50% D25% L
10
Half-time points
5
Half-time goals
+4
Goal difference (1st half)
5
Second-half points
0
Goal difference (2nd half)
2.50
PPG before half-time
Lead holding67%

Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 50%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.5

Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Gasogi United - second-half results

50% W0% D50% L
2
Half-time points
0
Half-time goals
-2
Goal difference (1st half)
6
Second-half points
-1
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.50
PPG before half-time
Defence after half-time+0.3

Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Marines - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match2.501.25
Goals scored / match1.30.8
Goals conceded / match0.30.8
Average goals in match1.51.5
1 goal75%50%
2 goals50%50%
3 goals25%50%
Clean sheet75%75%
No goal25%75%
Goal difference+40
Half-time: 75% leading - 25% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 25% won - 50% draw - 25% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 25% - Half-time goals total: 5
Gasogi United - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match0.501.50
Goals scored / match0.00.5
Goals conceded / match0.50.8
Average goals in match0.51.3
1 goal50%100%
2 goals0%25%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet50%50%
No goal100%50%
Goal difference-2-1
Half-time: 0% leading - 50% draw - 50% trailing
2nd half: 50% won - 0% draw - 50% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 0

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Marines
ScoredConceded
1
0
0-15
1
0
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

Gasogi United
ScoredConceded
0
1
0-15
0
0
16-30
0
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
0
1
61-75
0
0
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.38
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.6 : 0.8
Estimated goal split
home : away
141%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
25%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+26%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
38%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
13%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 8 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Marines

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.49
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.51
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.6 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.20
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.31
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
213%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
135%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.5
Late goals
13% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 13% come in the first quarter-hour.
13%

Gasogi United

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.12
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.87
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+2.3 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-1.25
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.38
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
68%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
133%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.5
Late goals
0% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.
0%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).

Teams vs league

MarinesLigaGasogi United
Average goals in match▲ 3.001.68• 1.75
Both teams scored▲ 25%23%▲ 25%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 50%19%▼ 0%
Clean sheets▲ 75%47%▼ 25%
Goal before half-time▲ 75%55%▼ 50%
Goal after half-time▼ 50%58%▲ 100%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

1.68
Average goals per match
23%
Both teams scored
19%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
47%
Clean sheets
0.94
Home goals / match
0.74
Away goals / match
+27%
Home attack advantage
+21%
Home defence advantage
+10%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
55%
1 goal
16%
2 goals
3%
3 goals
0%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
58%
1 goal
23%
2 goals
10%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (2): Marines 1 - 1 - 0 Gasogi United. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.

FAQ

When do Marines and Gasogi United play?

Marines face Gasogi United on 25 October 2026 in National Soccer League at Stade Umuganda. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Marines and Gasogi United?

In the last 2 head-to-head matches Marines won 1, Gasogi United won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Marines vs Gasogi United?

Marines score 2.00 goals per game on average and Gasogi United 0.50. The National Soccer League average is 1.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 19% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Marines's matches and 25% of Gasogi United's.

What form are Marines and Gasogi United in?

Over the last 5 games Marines have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Gasogi United 1-1-2 (1.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Marines vs Gasogi United?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.