Marko vs Larissa: match statistics

Marko have won all 3 of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 1.67 goals and conceding just 0.67. They have recorded 4 wins in their last 5 matches, although the 6 goals conceded during that period show that their defence is not always equally solid. Larissa remain unbeaten after 5 matches and average 3 goals away from home, but that figure is based on just 2 matches, one of which ended in a draw. The gap in the quality of chances created is narrow: Marko’s home xG stands at 1.33, while Larissa’s away xG is 1.27. However, the visitors allow opponents chances with a lower xG — 0.81 compared with 1.09 for the hosts. Marko’s run of home wins gives them a slight edge, but Larissa’s efficiency and solid defence make a draw a realistic outcome as well.

Marko kept a clean sheet in 67% of home matches, while Larissa did so in 50% of away matches, supporting a scenario in which at least one team fails to score (BTTS - No). The hosts average 1.0 goals at home, while Larissa limit opponents to just 0.81 xG, so a Marko goal is far from certain. The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by the fact that both teams scored in every home or away match considered, and Marko saw both teams score in 80% of their last five games. Nevertheless, the season-long rate of such matches is only 33% for Marko and 50% for Larissa, compared with the league average of 44%, making it slightly more likely that at least one side will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: Marko and Larissa average 1.28 and 1.27 xG, respectively, suggesting a moderate goal total despite the visitors’ high efficiency. Marko concede an average of 0.33 goals, compared with 1.00 for Larissa; moreover, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while the visitors have done so in 50%. None of either team’s matches so far has produced more than 4 goals, but their records against the 3.5 line differ: 100% of Marko’s matches finished Under, while 100% of Larissa’s went Over. Recent form also calls for caution: Marko’s matches have averaged 3.2 goals over their last five games, compared with 2.4 in Larissa’s matches. The 2.34-goal projection accounts for these opposing trends and gives Under 3.5 a clearer edge than the other options.

The strongest signal is Marko leading at the break and holding on to that advantage: the home side led at half-time in 2 of their 3 home matches without conceding before the break, and ultimately won 2 of those 3 games. In their last five matches, Marko led at half-time three times and won four times, supporting the 1/1 scenario. Larissa remain dangerous—they scored an average of 3 goals in their two away matches and averaged 2 goals in the second half—but they led at the break once and were trailing once. The teams’ similar average xG figures, 1.28 for Marko and 1.27 for Larissa, suggest comparable chance quality, so the home side’s advantage is not decisive. Given the small sample of just 3 home matches for Marko and 2 away matches for Larissa, 1/1 is the single most likely HT/FT scenario, but its edge over the alternatives is moderate.