Marsa vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: match statistics

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer enter the match as league leaders and remain unbeaten in their last 5 fixtures, recording 3 wins and 2 draws. During this period, the visitors scored 12 goals—an average of 2.4 per match—and conceded just 3, while Marsa have a record of 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. Although Marsa have won 2 of their last 5 matches, they have also suffered 2 defeats and averaged only 1 goal per game. In addition, the hosts lost their only match so far this season 0:1, whereas Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer won their opening fixture 2:0. The visitors’ greater consistency, significantly more effective attack and stronger defensive record all point to an away win.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by the league’s low-scoring profile: only 28% of matches end with both teams scoring, while the average goal tally is 1.71. Marsa have averaged just 1.0 goal in their last five matches, with an xG of 0.99, while Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have conceded only 0.6 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 0.81. The visitors are admittedly in strong attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals and an xG of 1.83 across their last five appearances, while Marsa have conceded 1.4 goals in that period, with an xG against of 1.85. However, the BTTS rate in the teams’ last five matches stands at 40% and 60%, respectively, so the possibility of Marsa failing to break through the visitors’ solid defence remains more likely than goals at both ends.

The Tunisian league has a very low average goals rate, at just 1.71 per match, with only 14% of games going over 2.5 goals. Marsa have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five appearances, with an attacking xG of 0.99. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have shown better attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals scored and an xG of 1.83 across their last five matches, while conceding just 0.6 goals and allowing opponents an xG of 0.81. The projected total of 2.00 goals accounts for the visitors’ attacking form, but the league’s low-scoring profile and Progrès’ solid defense clearly limit the chances of four goals being scored. Therefore, Under 3.5 is the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 83%.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are unbeaten in their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and conceding just 0.6, while Marsa average 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The visitors held a lead at the break in three of their last five matches and have not been behind at half-time in any of them, whereas Marsa were ahead after 45 minutes in only two of their last five games. The visitors’ advantage is particularly clear before the break: they average 1.6 goals in the first half compared with Marsa’s 0.8, while both teams concede an identical average of 0.6 goals. After half-time, Progrès have not conceded in their last five appearances, further supporting the scenario of maintaining an early lead; therefore, the most likely outcome is 2/2.