Marsa vs Zarzis: match statistics
Marsa vs Zarzis: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Marsa played Zarzis in Ligue 1 (Tunisia). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Marsa: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Zarzis: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Marsa scores 0.81 and concedes 1.04 goals per match. Zarzis scores 0.92 and concedes 1.00. League average: 1.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Marsa 15%, Zarzis 31%. Over 2.5: Marsa 27%, Zarzis 38%. League level: BTTS 27%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Marsa has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.23. Marsa: 10.4 shots per match, Zarzis: 7.5.
Match halves
Marsa: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.50. Zarzis: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Marsa: 0-15 (5 goals). Zarzis: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 1.73 goals per match, BTTS 27%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (2) because Zarzis shows superior form and efficiency recently: unbeaten in their last five matches (four draws, one win) and averaging 1.4 points per game, while Marsa in the same period has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 0.8 points per game. Marsa at home scores only 0.69 goals per game with xG 1.60, indicating significant finishing inefficiency (conversion ~5%), whereas Zarzis away scores 1.15 goals with xG 1.21 and has a conversion of ~14%. The hosts create more chances (avg. 12.85 shots and 5.08 on target per game, 55% possession) but it does not translate into goals; the gap between xG 1.60 and actual 0.69 goals is clear underperformance. Defensively the teams are similar: Marsa concedes 1.08 goals per game at home, Zarzis concedes 1.15 on the road, however in the last 5 matches Marsa conceded 5 goals versus Zarzis' 3. Given the hosts' low finishing and Zarzis' stable and more clinical chance conversion (1.15 goals away and 14% conversion), I estimate a 45% probability for an away win, 35% for a draw and 20% for a Marsa win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Marsa has a season BTTS rate of only 23% versus Zarzis' 38%, with the league average at 27%, which immediately indicates a low probability of both teams scoring. Marsa averages 0.69 goals per match with xG_for 1.25 and a very low conversion rate of 6%, while keeping a clean sheet in 46% of games — a strong signal that matches often do not feature goals from both sides. Zarzis shows better efficiency (1.15 goals with xG_for 1.21 and a 14% conversion) and in the last 5 matches scored 5 and conceded 3 goals, but their season BTTS is only 38% and clean sheets in 31% of matches, so the edge toward BTTS is not decisive. Additionally, the league has a low goals-per-game average of 1.73 and a high proportion of matches ending with a clean sheet (91%), which favors a No Goal outcome. Overall, the combined BTTS average of the two teams at around 31% (23% vs 38%), Marsa's poor finishing and the high share of clean sheets (46%) lead to an assessment of 30% for 'yes' and 70% for 'no', therefore I tip: no.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate total expected goals at 2.36 (Marsa 1.30, Zarzis 1.06) — Marsa xG_for is 1.25, and Zarzis xG_against 1.34 yields ~1.30 for the home side; likewise Zarzis xG_for 1.21 against Marsa defense 0.90 gives ~1.06. This season Marsa has had over 1.5 in 54% of matches and Zarzis in 62%, while the league averages 1.73 goals per game — our 2.36 is clearly higher and increases the probability of at least 2 goals. A Poisson simulation with mean 2.36 translates to about 68% probability for Over 1.5, ~42% for Over 2.5 and only ~21% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal splits (home over25 15% vs away 62%). Additionally, in the last 5 matches Marsa scored 3 goals (0.6 per game) versus Zarzis 5 goals (1.0 per game), and the difference in shot conversion (Marsa 6% vs Zarzis 14%) indicates greater efficiency from the visitors. Therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A Half-Time draw followed by an away win (X/2) appears most likely. A draw at the break is justified by the hosts drawing 42% of their matches at half-time and the visitors 54%, with 80% of the visitors’ last five matches being level at the break. After the interval the visitors dominate — they score on average 1.08 goals in the second half versus 0.58 for the hosts and have a higher shot conversion rate, 14% compared to 6%, which favors turnarounds and away victories. For full-time the visitors have won 38% of matches versus 23% for the hosts, and despite similar creative xG (1.21 for the visitors vs 1.25 for the hosts) the visitors’ efficiency and greater number of second-half goals increase their chances. Additionally, low HT BTTS (17% for hosts, 23% for visitors) suggests the half-time draw will more likely be a 0-0 or 1-1, reinforcing the X/2 scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Marsa | Zarzis | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Zarzis is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Marsa · 1.2 pts / match - Zarzis
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Zarzis is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
0.81 goals / match - Marsa · 0.92 goals / match - Zarzis
Marsa scores in 46% of matches (12 of 26 matches), while Zarzis keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 matches).
Zarzis scores in 50% of matches (13 of 26 matches), while Marsa keeps a clean sheet in 35% (9 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Marsa
Over / Under - Zarzis
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Zarzis is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - Marsa · 1.08 pts / match - Zarzis
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Marsa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Zarzis - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Marsa
Zarzis
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Marsa | Liga | Zarzis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 1.85 | 1.73 | ▲ 1.92 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▲ 31% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 27% | 27% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 35% | 45% | ▼ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 60% | ▲ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 69% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Marsa 1 - 0 - 0 Zarzis. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Marsa vs Zarzis?
The Ligue 1 match finished Marsa 1:0 Zarzis. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Marsa vs Zarzis?
Marsa score 0.81 goals per game on average and Zarzis 0.92. The Ligue 1 average is 1.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 15% of Marsa's matches and 31% of Zarzis's.
What form are Marsa and Zarzis in?
Over the last 5 games Marsa have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Zarzis 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Marsa vs Zarzis?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Marsa vs Zarzis: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.