Mārupe vs Smiltene: match statistics
Mārupe vs Smiltene: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mārupe played Smiltene in 1. Liga (Latvia). The match was played on 4 July 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mārupe: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Smiltene: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mārupe scores 1.82 and concedes 1.27 goals per match. Smiltene scores 1.00 and concedes 2.82. League average: 3.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mārupe 45%, Smiltene 45%. Over 2.5: Mārupe 73%, Smiltene 55%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 68%.
xG, shots and style
Mārupe has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.13. Mārupe: 10.6 shots per match, Smiltene: 8.4.
Match halves
Mārupe: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.36. Smiltene: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.91.
Goals by minute
Mārupe: 76-90+ (8 goals). Smiltene: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 3.50 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 68%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mārupe are the clear favorites: at home they score 2.4 goals per game with an xG of 1.81 and 56% possession, while Smiltene on the road average only 0.67 goals per game with an xG of 1.01 and 40% possession. The hosts’ shooting efficiency is markedly better — Mārupe posts a 20% conversion rate and averages 5.75 shots on target, whereas Smiltene has an 8% conversion and 3 shots on target; this translates to guests failing to score in 67% of away matches, while the hosts have never finished a home match goalless (FTS 0%). Defensively Smiltene concedes 3.17 goals per away game on average (xG against 2.38) and carry a -15 away goal difference, while Mārupe concede 1.8 at home (xG against 1.07) and sit at +3 overall, highlighting clear defensive vulnerabilities for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Mārupe have scored 8 goals and average 1.2 points per game, while Smiltene have scored 9 but conceded 12 and average only 0.8 points per game, indicating greater instability on the road. Therefore I project a home win with probabilities: Home 68%, Draw 18%, Away 14%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
League indicators and recent form favor BTTS - Yes: the league BTTS rate is 62%, and both teams have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Mārupe averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 2.4 per game, while Smiltene averages 0.67 scored and 3.17 conceded, indicating both sides regularly allow goals (2.4 vs 3.17). xG confirms an open game – Mārupe xG 1.27 with xG against 2.10, Smiltene xG 1.01 with xG against 2.38, so both opponents permit high expected chance values. Additionally, Mārupe has 4.4 shots on target and a 16% shot-to-goal conversion rate, Smiltene 3.0 shots on target and 8% conversion, and Smiltene has 0% clean sheets this season; in the last 5 matches the teams have scored 8 and 9 goals respectively (1.6 and 1.8). Based on this I assess BTTS probability at ~72% vs 28% and select 'yes' as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I estimate the home side to score about 1.83 goals (xG_for home 1.27 and xG_against away 2.38; (1.27+2.38)/2 = 1.825), and the away side about 1.56 goals (xG_for away 1.01 and xG_against home 2.10; (1.01+2.10)/2 = 1.555), totaling ~3.39 goals. Season-long indicators strongly favor Over 1.5: homes have Over 1.5 in 80% of matches, aways in 83%, yielding an average of ~82% probability of at least 2 goals. Over 2.5 also has an edge — seasonally homes 60% and aways 50%, while in the last 5 matches homes had over 2.5 in 80% and aways in 60%; averaging form and season gives an estimated ~63% chance. Over 3.5 is borderline: seasonally homes 60% and aways 50%, implying roughly a 55% chance of more than 3.5 goals. Additionally the league averages 3.51 goals per match, homes concede 2.4 goals per match and aways 3.17, which supports a higher goal count and increases BTTS probability. Therefore the strongest and safest signal is the over on the 1.5 line, with Over 2.5 as a secondary option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Both teams hardly ever lead at the break this season (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0% and leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0%), and a draw at half-time occurs frequently (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 40% vs 33% for the away side), so the HT is most likely to be level. After the break the home side is stronger: they score on average 1.2 goals in the second half versus 0.67 for the visitors (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.2 vs 0.67) and have a higher xG of 1.27 compared to 1.01, which indicates an offensive advantage after the interval. Homes register 4.4 shots on target per match versus 3.0 for the guests and have a higher conversion rate (16% vs 8%), while visitors concede on average 3.17 goals per match compared to 2.4 for hosts, so the home team appears to exploit their chances better. Additionally, 80% of home matches see goals in the second half (over05_2hg_percentage_home 80%) and for away teams the second half accounts for such goals in 100% of cases, confirming that decisive goals often come after the break. Therefore I pick most likely HT draw and a home win (X/1) with a 32% probability, followed by draw/draw 18% and HT draw with an away win (X/2) 10%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mārupe | Smiltene | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mārupe is 500% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Mārupe · 0.2 pts / match - Smiltene
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mārupe is 82% better for: goals scored per match.
1.82 goals / match - Mārupe · 1 goals / match - Smiltene
Mārupe is 122% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.27 goals / match - Mārupe · 2.82 goals / match - Smiltene
Mārupe scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Smiltene keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).
Smiltene scores in 45% of matches (5 of 11 matches), while Mārupe keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mārupe
Over / Under - Smiltene
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mārupe is 253% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Mārupe · 0.36 pts / match - Smiltene
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mārupe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Smiltene - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mārupe
Smiltene
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Mārupe | Liga | Smiltene | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.09 | 3.50 | ▲ 3.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 60% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 68% | ▼ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 23% | ▼ 9% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 71% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 85% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mārupe 1 - 0 - 1 Smiltene. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mārupe vs Smiltene?
The 1. Liga match finished Mārupe 2:1 Smiltene. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mārupe and Smiltene?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mārupe won 1, Smiltene won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mārupe vs Smiltene?
Mārupe score 1.82 goals per game on average and Smiltene 1.00. The 1. Liga average is 3.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 68% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Mārupe's matches and 45% of Smiltene's.
What form are Mārupe and Smiltene in?
Over the last 5 games Mārupe have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Smiltene 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mārupe vs Smiltene?
The statistical background for Mārupe vs Smiltene — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.