Mārupe vs Super Nova II: match statistics

Mārupe have a higher average goals-per-game figure at home—1.75 compared with Super Nova II’s 1.50 away—as well as more shots on target per match: 4.57 to 4.38. However, the hosts are in poor form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 11 in that run. Super Nova II have also won only once in their last five matches, but their defence has conceded 7 goals, clearly fewer than their opponents. The key factor is the visitors’ high away draw rate of 50%, while they lose just 25% of their matches on the road. Mārupe should enjoy more possession, averaging 53%, but the hosts’ weak defence, conceding 1.88 goals per match, limits their chances of taking all three points. Therefore, a draw is the most likely outcome.

BTTS - Yes has a moderate edge, as Super Nova II have scored in every match this season, while their BTTS rate stands at as high as 75%, compared with 50% for Mārupe. The hosts concede an average of 1.25 goals, but their defence has clearly weakened over the last five matches, allowing opponents to score 2.2 goals per game, with an xG against of 2.00. Mārupe have scored only 0.8 goals per game recently, but Super Nova II allow opponents a high average xG of 1.88 and have conceded 7 goals in their last five fixtures. The main risk is the lower attacking efficiency of both teams over their last five matches; however, the combination of the hosts' weak defence and the visitors' consistent scoring record supports goals at both ends more strongly than a scenario in which one team fails to score.

Super Nova II score an average of 1.50 goals per match and have found the net at least once in 100% of their games, while Mārupe concede an average of 1.25 goals. The hosts have allowed opponents chances worth 1.47 xG, and their last five matches produced as many as 2.20 goals conceded per game. The visitors’ defence is also vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.63 goals and 1.88 xG, which supports a projection of around 1.40 goals for Mārupe. The Over 1.5 goals line has been covered in 100% of Super Nova II matches and 63% of Mārupe’s games, making it clearly safer than the more balanced 2.5 line.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Super Nova II victory, as Mārupe have drawn at the break in 60% of their last five matches and scored just 0.2 goals per game during the opening half. The visitors have made the stronger start over this period: they led at the break in 40% of their matches and scored an average of 0.6 goals, while the hosts have not once gone into half-time ahead. After the interval, the advantage shifts to the away side, who average 1.0 goals in second halves compared with Mārupe’s 0.5, while the hosts concede 0.88 goals per match during that period. Current form further favours the visitors: Mārupe have lost four of their last five matches and conceded an average of 2.2 goals in those games, whereas Super Nova II have suffered only two defeats and recorded draws in 40% of those matches. Although the hosts have a higher season-long win rate, 50% compared with 25%, their poor recent form and the five goals conceded between the 76th and 90th minutes reinforce the scenario of an away-side turnaround after half-time.