Mash'al vs Buxoro: match statistics
Mash'al vs Buxoro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mash'al played Buxoro in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 27 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Mash'al: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Buxoro: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mash'al scores 0.33 and concedes 1.89 goals per match. Buxoro scores 1.33 and concedes 1.11. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mash'al 33%, Buxoro 56%. Over 2.5: Mash'al 44%, Buxoro 33%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Buxoro has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.07. Mash'al: 8.4 shots per match, Buxoro: 10.8.
Match halves
Mash'al: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33. Buxoro: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Mash'al: 61-75 (2 goals). Buxoro: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mash'al is in deep crisis: they sit 16th and have lost all home matches (9 defeats, 100% losses), failed to score at home (0 goals on average) and conceded 17 goals this season, including 8 in the last 5 matches. Buxoro are 5th, have scored 12 goals this season and 6 in the last 5 matches; away they average 1.25 goals per match and have not had a goalless game (0% of matches without scoring). In terms of chance quality, the home xG is 1.31 versus 1.26 xG for visitors on the road, and shot volumes are similar (10.25 vs 11.25), but the key difference is efficiency — Mash'al has a conversion rate of 0% versus about 11% for Buxoro. Defensively both teams concede (Mash'al 1.5 conceded per home match vs Buxoro 1.75 conceded on average away), but Buxoro hold the edge due to better chance execution and the fact that the hosts have accumulated 0 points in the last five matches compared to an average of 0.8 points per match for the visitors. Consequently I forecast a Buxoro win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Buxoro has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and 60% in the last 5 matches, a strong signal that the visitors frequently participate in fixtures with both teams scoring. Mash'al has a seasonal BTTS of 40% but also 60% in the last 5 matches; Mash'al's seasonal goals conceded average is 0.6, yet in the last 5 matches they concede 1.6 on average, indicating a recent defensive deterioration. In xG terms Buxoro posts xG 1.26 per match, while Mash'al at home concedes xG 1.22; simultaneously Mash'al creates xG 1.39 versus xG against Buxoro of 1.68, suggesting both sides possess offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally Buxoro scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches versus 3 scored by Mash'al, the visitors have only 25% clean sheets, and the league BTTS rate is 53%, so the weight of the stats favors both teams scoring. Considering the visitors' 75% BTTS, the equal 60% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches for both teams and Mash'al's declining defense, I favor BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% (No 32%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate 1.54 expected goals for Mash'al and 1.24 for Buxoro (calculated as average xG: (1.39 + 1.68)/2 = 1.54 and (1.26 + 1.22)/2 = 1.24), totaling 2.78 goals. Season rates for Over 1.5 are 60% for Mash'al and 75% for Buxoro, and the league averages 2.56 goals per game, which supports at least two goals. Over 2.5 is more ambiguous (seasonally 20% Mash'al vs 50% Buxoro), but in the last 5 matches Mash'al had Over 2.5 in 60% and Buxoro in 40%, and the combined xG=2.78 gives a moderate signal for Over 2.5. Additionally, BTTS seasonally 40% (Mash'al) vs 75% (Buxoro) and 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both, plus average SOT 4.8 vs 3.75 and conversion 13% vs 11%, increase the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (rating 85%), Over 2.5 I rate at ~60%, and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~25%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mash'al has a clear seasonal advantage: an average of 2.0 points per match versus Buxoro's 1.0, 60% home wins compared to 25% away wins, and 1.4 goals scored with 0.6 conceded, while Buxoro records 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. At Half-Time Mash'al leads in 60% of matches and averages 0.6 goals scored by the break versus 0.4 conceded, which strongly supports a lead at the break. Mash'al’s attack produces 1.39 xG and 4.8 on-target shots on average, while Buxoro concedes 1.68 xG and registers 3.75 on-target shots, suggesting a home advantage in chance creation. Note form — Mash'al’s last 5 matches are 'lllll' and Buxoro has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, so there is a risk of conceding; nevertheless, seasonal HT metrics (9 points, averaging 1.8 points at Half-Time) and overall efficacy point toward a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of Mash'al leading at the break and the home side winning the match.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mash'al | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.12 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Buxoro is 303% better for: goals scored per match.
0.33 goals / match - Mash'al · 1.33 goals / match - Buxoro
Buxoro is 70% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.89 goals / match - Mash'al · 1.11 goals / match - Buxoro
Mash'al scores in 33% of matches (3 of 9 matches), while Buxoro keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Buxoro scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Mash'al keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mash'al
Over / Under - Buxoro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Buxoro is 303% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.33 pts / match - Mash'al · 1.33 pts / match - Buxoro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mash'al - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Buxoro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mash'al
Buxoro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Mash'al | Liga | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.22 | 2.56 | ▼ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 50% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 79% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mash'al 1 - 1 - 0 Buxoro. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mash'al vs Buxoro?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Mash'al 0:1 Buxoro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mash'al and Buxoro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mash'al won 1, Buxoro won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mash'al vs Buxoro?
Mash'al score 0.33 goals per game on average and Buxoro 1.33. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Mash'al's matches and 56% of Buxoro's.
What form are Mash'al and Buxoro in?
Over the last 5 games Mash'al have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Buxoro 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mash'al vs Buxoro?
The statistical background for Mash'al vs Buxoro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.