Mash'al vs Nasaf: match statistics
Mash'al vs Nasaf: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mash'al played Nasaf in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 22 July 2026. Venue: Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mash'al: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Nasaf: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mash'al scores 0.42 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. Nasaf scores 1.25 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mash'al 33%, Nasaf 58%. Over 2.5: Mash'al 42%, Nasaf 33%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Nasaf has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.00. Mash'al: 8.0 shots per match, Nasaf: 12.1.
Match halves
Mash'al: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33. Nasaf: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Mash'al: 61-75 (3 goals). Nasaf: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Pick: 2 — away win. Nasaf has 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses with 15 goals scored over the season, while Mash'al has only 1 win, 0 draws and 11 losses with 5 goals, giving a clear advantage to the visitors in results and efficiency. In the last 5 matches Nasaf scored 14 goals and averages 2.2 points per game with a 3-2-0 record, whereas Mash'al scored 6 goals in their last 5 and averages 1.2 points per game with a 2-0-3 record. Mash'al’s home metrics are poor: 0.17 goals per home game, 83% of matches without scoring and a shot conversion of 2%, while Nasaf away records 1.67 goals per game, 0% of matches without a goal and a 15% conversion, with a higher volume of shots (11.33 vs 9.17) and shots on target (3.83 vs 2.83). Despite similar goals conceded averages (≈1.17), higher away xG for the visitors (1.33 vs 1.14) and a better away goal differential (+3 vs hosts’ -6) favor Nasaf; I estimate probabilities at ~72% for an away win, 18% draw and 10% home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal comes from Nasaf: their season BTTS on the road is 83%, while Mash'al at home is only 33%, indicating away matches frequently end Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches both teams register BTTS at 60% (last 5: 60% for Mash'al and 60% for Nasaf); Nasaf scored 14 goals in those 5 matches (avg 2.8), and Mash'al scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 8 (1.6), so recent form favors goal exchanges. xG and shooting stats confirm this: Nasaf recently has xG_for 1.46 and on average 3.83 shots on target per match with a 15% conversion rate, while Mash'al in the last 5 matches concedes an average xG of 1.57. Although Mash'al has 50% clean sheets at home this season, they have scored only 5 goals and conceded 21 overall, and Nasaf on the road scores an average 1.67 goals (15 goals season), so Mash'al’s defense looks vulnerable to the visitors' offense. Considering the away season BTTS of 83%, 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches and the difference in recent goal form (2.8 vs 1.2), the 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes) scenario appears more likely — I assess its probability at 75% versus 25% for 'No' (No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects a total of 2.79 goals (home xG 1.44 vs away xG 1.35), indicating a high probability of Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches Mash'al averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Nasaf averaged 2.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, showing a clear offensive advantage for the visitors. Seasonal stats confirm the asymmetry — Nasaf have 100% of matches Over 1.5, Mash'al 33%, and both teams have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5 games, hence a moderate chance for Over 2.5 (~53%). The percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is 83% for Nasaf vs 33% for Mash'al, and the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 15% vs 6% for the hosts, which increases the risk of goals from Nasaf. Considering the expected 2.79 goals and the calculated probability of Over 1.5 at ~77%, I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics show Mash'al were level at the break in 6 of 6 matches (100%), while Nasaf led at halftime in only 1 of 6 (17%), and the average first-half goals are 0.17 for Mash'al versus 0.67 for Nasaf — a strong signal for a halftime draw. Over the full match Nasaf average 1.67 goals per game versus 0.83 for Mash'al and have a higher shot conversion rate (15% conversion vs 6%), even though the visitors’ xG is 1.33 versus the hosts’ 1.46; this suggests Nasaf are better at converting chances. The second half favors the visitors: Nasaf score on average 1.0 goal after the break, and the mean goals in the second halves of their matches is 1.5 versus 0.67 and 1.33 for Mash'al, which increases the probability of a second-half turnaround in Nasaf’s favor. Mash'al have kept a clean sheet at halftime in 83% of matches and have scored only 2 first-half goals this season, so the hosts very often go into the interval level but are not effective at finishing moves. Therefore I assign the highest probability to a halftime draw and a Nasaf win at full-time (X/2 = 38%), then X/X 25% and 2/2 14% — the distribution reflects Mash'al’s 100% HT draws and Nasaf’s superior second-half goal production and conversion.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mash'al | Nasaf | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nasaf is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Mash'al · 1 pts / match - Nasaf
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nasaf is 198% better for: goals scored per match.
0.42 goals / match - Mash'al · 1.25 goals / match - Nasaf
Nasaf is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.75 goals / match - Mash'al · 1 goals / match - Nasaf
Mash'al scores in 42% of matches (5 of 12 matches), while Nasaf keeps a clean sheet in 33% (4 of 12 matches).
Nasaf scores in 83% of matches (10 of 12 matches), while Mash'al keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mash'al
Over / Under - Nasaf
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nasaf is 138% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.42 pts / match - Mash'al · 1 pts / match - Nasaf
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mash'al - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nasaf - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mash'al
Nasaf
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Mash'al | Liga | Nasaf | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.17 | 2.59 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 53% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 69% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mash'al 1 - 0 - 1 Nasaf. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mash'al vs Nasaf?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Mash'al 1:1 Nasaf. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mash'al and Nasaf?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mash'al won 1, Nasaf won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mash'al vs Nasaf?
Mash'al score 0.42 goals per game on average and Nasaf 1.25. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Mash'al's matches and 58% of Nasaf's.
What form are Mash'al and Nasaf in?
Over the last 5 games Mash'al have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Nasaf 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mash'al vs Nasaf?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mash'al vs Nasaf: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.