Masr vs Kahraba Ismailia: match statistics

Masr holds the statistical edge: 12 wins this season vs 7 for Kahraba, and a goal record of 38 scored and 30 conceded vs 34 scored and 52 conceded for the visitors. At home Masr concedes on average 0.8 goals per match and records 47% clean sheets, while Kahraba concede 1.08 goals in away matches and have only 31% clean sheets. The hosts generate higher xG at home (1.31 vs 1.11) and average 4.13 shots on target per match vs 3.15 for the guests, giving them an advantage in chance quality. The visitors have slightly higher shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and average 1.23 goals on the road, but their high number of goals conceded (52 this season) diminishes that threat. Considering league position (8 vs 19), similar form in the last 5 matches (both 2-2-1) and the hosts’ defensive edge, I assess the probabilities as 60% for Masr, 22% for a draw and 18% for Kahraba.

The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario appears dominant based on the stats: Masr has a season BTTS of 74% and concedes 2.00 goals per match on average, while Kahraba Ismailia has a BTTS of 54% and concedes 1.08 on average, which together increase the likelihood of goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Masr records BTTS 60%, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals on average, whereas Kahraba has BTTS 40%, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0, indicating the hosts more often open matches and opponents are capable of responding. xG confirms this dynamic: Masr generates 1.21 xG and allows 1.60 xG, and Kahraba generates 1.11 xG and allows 1.51 xG, so both teams create chances while also showing defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally, Masr has only 11% clean sheets this season versus 31% for Kahraba, and average shots on target are similar (3.05 vs 3.15), meaning the opponent has a realistic chance to score even with lower shooting efficiency. Considering these numbers and the fact that the Over 2.5 + BTTS combination occurs for the hosts in 57% of cases, I assign the 'Yes' scenario a 75% probability and 'No' 25%.

Based on xG: Masr has an attacking xG of 1.21, while Kahraba concedes 1.51 xG per match, yielding about 1.36 expected goals for the home side; Kahraba’s xG is 1.11 and Masr concedes 1.60 xG, giving approximately 1.36 for the visitors and a total of ~2.72 goals. Seasonal data confirm a propensity for goals — Masr have 79% of matches over 1.5 goals, Kahraba 69%; hosts concede on average 2.0 goals at home, while visitors score on average 1.23 goals. BTTS rates are 74% (Masr) and 54% (Kahraba), and over 0.5 occurred in 89% and 100% of matches respectively, which strengthens the both-teams-to-score signal. A Poisson model on a 2.72 total yields ~75.5% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~51% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and ~29% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 is borderline (~51%) and Over 3.5 has low probability (~29%).

I forecast a draw at half-time because the home side average 0.26 goals in the first half, the visitors 0.31, and half-time draws occurred in 47% of the home team’s matches and 54% of the visitors’ matches. The home team lead at the break in only 11% of games, and the away team in 23%, which further indicates a high rate of stalemates after 45 minutes. I favor the visitors after the break: they have 54% of wins this season versus 0% for the hosts, and in second halves the visitors win 46% of matches and average 1.77 points, while the home side have only 5% second-half wins and 0.63 points. Additionally, goals are scored very frequently in the second half — in 89% of the home team’s matches and 92% of the visitors’ — and the home team concedes an average of 1.37 goals after the break versus 0.69 conceded by the visitors, which supports a turnaround in favor of the away side. Therefore I select the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and away win (X/2) as the strongest signal; an additional argument is the visitors’ superior shot conversion rate, 14% versus 10% for the hosts.