Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare: match statistics

Shonan Bellmare are showing a clearly stronger run of form: in their last 5 matches, they have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, remaining unbeaten and averaging 2.2 points per game. Over the same period, Matsumoto Yamaga have failed to win a single match, recording 3 draws and 2 defeats, which amounts to just 0.6 points per game. Both teams have scored 5 goals in their five appearances, but the key difference lies in their defensive performance: the visitors have conceded just 2 goals, while the hosts have allowed as many as 8. Matsumoto are therefore conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game during this run, whereas Shonan are allowing opponents just 0.4 goals. Given such a significant difference in defensive organization, an away win for Shonan Bellmare is the more likely outcome, although a draw remains a realistic possibility due to the teams' identical scoring records.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Shonan Bellmare have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last 5 matches and have shown very solid defensive stability. The visitors recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five fixtures, while Matsumoto Yamaga saw this outcome in 60%, creating clearly contrasting profiles. Matsumoto have scored an average of 1.0 goal per match, but against a defence that has conceded only 2 goals in 5 appearances, they may fail to score. Although the hosts’ latest xG stands at 1.51, Shonan are also generating 1.26 xG, while the league-average BTTS rate is only 40%. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains one in which at least one team fails to score.

The available data from the last five matches indicate moderate scoring potential: both teams averaged 1.0 goal per match. Shonan conceded just 0.4 goals per game during this period, while Matsumoto conceded 1.6, which points to a greater chance of an away win but not an open game. The teams’ combined xG is 2.77, yet their actual goal tally amounts to only 10 goals across their last 10 matches combined. Over 2.5 goals occurred in just 40% of Matsumoto’s recent matches and 20% of Shonan’s, so the clearest edge lies with Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Shonan did not trail at half-time in any of them. The visitors conceded an average of 0.0 goals before the break and kept a clean sheet in each of their last five first halves, whereas Matsumoto scored just 0.4 goals during this period. After the interval, the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal, but Shonan scored only 0.4, which limits the strength of the signal for a clear away victory. However, the full-time results form is decisively better on Shonan’s side: 2.2 points per match, 3 wins and 2 draws, compared with Matsumoto’s 0.6 points and 2 defeats. Shonan’s low average of 1.4 goals in recent matches, together with 67% of league games ending with either side keeping a clean sheet, further supports a cautious, draw-oriented match pattern.