Mazatlán vs Querétaro: match statistics

Mazatlán has the home efficiency edge: they score 1.6 goals per home match on average, register 10.47 shots per game with 3.73 on target, and maintain a 15% conversion rate. Querétaro score only 0.67 goals on average away and fail to score in 53% of their away matches, whereas Mazatlán have 0% home matches without a goal, which increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring. However, the visitors are in better short-term form: in the last 5 matches Querétaro conceded just 2 goals and average 1.8 points per game, while Mazatlán conceded 10 goals in that period and average 0.8 points. xG shows a slight home advantage (1.20 xG vs 1.03 xG), but Mazatlán’s high draw rate at home (47% of home matches end level) suggests a split of points is realistic. Considering Mazatlán’s superior finishing and chance-creation, I rate the hosts as more likely to win, although a draw remains a probable outcome.

I project BTTS - Yes at 70% probability and BTTS - No at 30%. Mazatlán averages 1.38 goals scored and concedes 1.19 at home, while Querétaro away scores only 0.67 and concedes 1.87; combined these averages yield ~2.5 goals per match, which supports Goal/Goal. Strong support for BTTS is Mazatlán’s form over the last 5 matches: 80% BTTS with 7 scored and 10 conceded (1.4 and 2.0 per game), indicating a high susceptibility of the home side to conceding; Querétaro in the same period scored 5 and conceded 2 (1.0 and 0.4), showing recent defensive solidity but low attacking output. xG further supports this: Mazatlán generates 1.20 xG and allows 1.54 xG, while Querétaro posts 1.03 xG and concedes 1.67 xG. League BTTS rate is 59%, seasonally Mazatlán has 50% BTTS vs 40% for Querétaro, together favoring both teams to score. Conservatively, I factor in Querétaro’s low conversion rate (7%) and an average of 3.47 shots on target per match, which limits their offensive threat and justifies a 30% probability for No Goal (clean sheet expected for at least one side).

Both teams show a strong tendency for matches over 1.5 goals: Mazatlán have 69% of such games, Querétaro 73%. Based on xG and defensive metrics I calculated expected goals of 1.43 for Mazatlán and 1.29 for Querétaro, totaling 2.72, which in a Poisson distribution yields ~75% chance of at least 2 goals and ~51% for Over 2.5. Offensive parameters support this projection — Mazatlán average 11.38 shots and 3.75 on target (12% conversion), Querétaro 9.20 shots and 3.47 on target (7% conversion), indicating many chances. Since Over 3.5 has only ~29% probability, the strongest data-driven signal is to play the over at the 1.5 line.

Mazatlán has a clear offensive advantage: on average 1.38 goals per match versus 0.67 for Querétaro, xG 1.20 vs 1.03 and a shot conversion rate of 12% vs 7%. In first halves Mazatlán drew in 50% of matches and scores an average of 0.50 goals by the break, while Querétaro averages 0.47 and is trailing at the break in 60% of games. The key signal is the second half: Mazatlán scores an average of 0.88 goals after the break versus 0.20 for Querétaro, has 24 second-half points and wins 38% of those halves, whereas Querétaro has 8 points and 0% second-half wins. Considering these figures and the fact that the hosts have 1.56 season points per match versus the visitors' 0.67 and 44% wins vs 13%, the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Mazatlán victory at Full-Time (X/1).