Mazatlán vs Toluca: match statistics

Toluca holds a clear superiority across the season: 21 wins, 11 draws and 6 losses with a goal difference of 71 scored and 35 conceded, while Mazatlán has 5 wins, 11 draws and 16 losses with a 37-58 record. At home Mazatlán averages 1.56 goals scored and concedes 1.81 with average xG 1.22 for and 1.88 against, whereas Toluca away records 1.42 scored and only 0.79 conceded with xG 1.62 for and 1.13 against, indicating an away defensive edge. The visitors create more chances — 15.84 shots and 5.00 on target per away match versus Mazatlán’s 10.69 and 3.69 at home; despite the hosts’ higher conversion rate (15% vs 9%), Toluca produces substantially more opportunities. In the last 5 matches Mazatlán has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, averaging 0.4 points per game, while Toluca over the same period has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 1.4 points — the trend favors the visitors. Additionally Toluca keeps 42% clean sheets away compared to Mazatlán’s 6% at home, therefore I project a Toluca victory.

Mazatlán has a seasonal BTTS rate of 74% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with only 26% clean sheets on the season, indicating hosts regularly concede. Toluca posts a seasonal BTTS of 37%, but this rose to 60% in the last 5 matches, and visitors averaged 1.8 goals in those five games (Mazatlán 0.8), so Toluca have been more effective offensively recently. xG data shows Mazatlán xG_for 2.02 versus Toluca 1.62, while Mazatlán recorded xG_against 2.42 in the last 5 (Toluca last5 xG_for 1.93), giving the visitors a realistic chance to score against a weaker home defense. Seasonal goals averages are 2.32 for Mazatlán and 1.42 for Toluca, and the league BTTS level is 59%, so combining season history, recent form and xG, the more likely scenario is both teams to score. On this basis I recommend BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal (approx. 75% vs 25%).

I back Over 1.5 because Mazatlán at home has 89% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Toluca 53%, and the league average is 2.9 goals per game. The xG model gives 1.58 for Mazatlán (xG for 2.02 vs xG against Toluca 1.13) and 1.35 for Toluca (xG for 1.62 vs xG against Mazatlán 1.07), totaling 2.93 expected goals. Mazatlán averages 6.58 shots on target versus Toluca’s 5.0 with conversion rates of 12% vs 9%, and the home side has 74% of matches with both teams scoring, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈90% chance); Over 2.5 also has an edge (≈62%) given the combined xG=2.93 and home over2.5 rate of 58%. I rate Over 3.5 as less likely (~33%) because the 2.93 goal projection is below 3.5, despite Mazatlán having 53% of home matches over 3.5 this season.

Seasonal figures favor Mazatlán: the hosts win 63% of matches and lead at the break in 58% of games, scoring an average of 2.32 goals per match and 1.16 before halftime. Toluca has a 47% win rate and averages 1.42 goals per match, but concedes only 0.79 goals per match and 0.37 by halftime, which indicates relative defensive solidity by the visitors in the first half. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 2.02 versus Toluca’s 1.62, and average shots on target are 6.58 vs 5.0, supporting the scenario of Mazatlán taking a lead in the first half and maintaining it. Despite Mazatlán’s poorer form in the last five matches (0% wins) compared to Toluca’s 40% wins, the model assigns the highest probability, 46%, to 1/1 (which corresponds to a conversion of a halftime lead into a full-time victory of approximately 79% = 46/58). Other scenarios are distributed conservatively (e.g. 11% for 1/X, 11% for X/1, 14% for X/X and smaller chances for a turnaround: 2/1 = 6%, 2/X = 7%, 2/2 = 3%, 1/2 = 1%, X/2 = 1%), reflecting the risk of an equalizer or Toluca comeback.