Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki vs Ząbkovia Ząbki: match statistics

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki have a clear edge in chance creation at home: their average xG is 2.31, while Ząbkovia Ząbki allow opponents 2.12 xG away from home. The hosts average 19 shots and 7 shots on target per home match, compared with just 5 attempts and 1 shot on target for the visitors, confirming the difference in attacking potential. Ząbkovia are yet to score in an away fixture, have failed to find the net in 100% of such matches, and concede an average of 5 goals. Mazovia have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 16 goals in that run, while the visitors conceded 11 goals over the same period. The hosts’ defence can also be vulnerable, as they concede an average of 3 goals at home, so Ząbkovia retain a slight chance of an upset; however, a Mazovia victory is the most likely outcome.

Seasonal data clearly highlights Ząbkovia’s attacking problems: the visitors have not yet scored even one goal per match on average, and they failed to score in 100% of their games. Mazovia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, further strengthening the scenario in which at least one side fails to score. However, Ząbkovia concede an average of 5.0 goals away from home, with an xG against them of 2.12, giving the hosts strong grounds to find the net. The form across the last five matches has been more open, as both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their games, with average xG figures of 2.27 and 1.42. Despite this improvement, Ząbkovia’s current away data and Mazovia’s defensive solidity give a slight edge to the BTTS - No pick.

Mazovia’s last five matches produced an average of 4.8 goals, with the team scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.6, while Ząbkovia recorded a total of 4.2 goals per game, with 2.0 scored and 2.2 conceded. Both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five appearances, clearly exceeding the already high league average of 3.28 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by average xG figures of 2.27 for the home side and 1.42 for the visitors, while Ząbkovia allowed opponents 1.74 xG. In the small league sample, the visitors conceded as many as 5 goals per game and kept no clean sheets, while 100% of their matches ended with at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as it requires only two goals against a projected total of 3.70 and is supported by very strong current-form data from both teams.

In their last five matches, Mazovia won 60% of the games, scored an average of 3.2 goals overall and 1.4 before half-time, while Ząbkovia conceded an average of 1.33 goals in the first halves. The hosts held a lead at the break in 40% of this sample, whereas the visitors were never ahead at half-time and were level after 45 minutes in 67% of cases. After the interval, Mazovia’s advantage becomes even more pronounced: they score an average of 1.8 goals, compared with just 0.33 for Ząbkovia. The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals after the break and have kept a clean sheet in none of their last five outings. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1, with Mazovia leading at the break and maintaining their victory through to full-time, although an HT draw remains a significant alternative.