Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: match statistics
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mbeya City played Kagera Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 9 October 2026. Venue: Sokoine Stadium. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Mbeya City: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Kagera Sugar: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mbeya City scores 1.00 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Kagera Sugar scores 0.83 and concedes 2.33. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mbeya City 17%, Kagera Sugar 67%. Over 2.5: Mbeya City 17%, Kagera Sugar 33%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Kagera Sugar has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.45. Mbeya City: 8.2 shots per match, Kagera Sugar: 7.8.
Match halves
Mbeya City: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.83. Kagera Sugar: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.17.
Goals by minute
Mbeya City: 76-90+ (3 goals). Kagera Sugar: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mbeya City sit 5th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 15th-placed Kagera Sugar have failed to win during that span. The hosts’ advantage is particularly evident defensively: they concede an average of 0.67 goals at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 4 goals per away match and have lost both of those fixtures. Mbeya City have won 2 of their 3 home games, scoring an average of 1.33 goals, which, combined with their opponents’ defensive struggles away from home, points to another victory. Kagera can still create chances, however—their away xG is 1.74 compared with 1.32 for the hosts—so a clean sheet is far from guaranteed. Ultimately, the difference in results and goals conceded tips the balance in Mbeya City’s favour.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal in favour of both teams scoring comes from Kagera Sugar: they have scored in every away match but have yet to keep a clean sheet, with away BTTS at 100%. Mbeya City have also failed to keep a clean sheet at home, giving the visitors a genuine chance to extend their scoring run, particularly with an average xG of 1.74 compared with the 1.61 xG conceded by the hosts. The greater uncertainty is whether Mbeya City will score: they average just 0.5 goals at home and have failed to score in 50% of those matches. However, Kagera concede an average of 4.0 goals away from home and have shipped 12 in total across their last five matches, significantly increasing the likelihood of a goal from the hosts. Although the league BTTS rate is 47%, the visitors' defensive frailty and neither side having kept a clean sheet tip the assessment towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 100% of Mbeya City’s home matches and Kagera Sugar’s away matches so far. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.29 xG at home, while the visitors allow opponents 1.61 xG and have conceded an average of 4.0 goals away, supporting the case for a Mbeya City goal. Kagera Sugar generate 1.74 xG away and average 6.5 shots on target, although Mbeya City have conceded just 0.6 goals per match across their last five games. A forecast of 2.75 total goals also favors Over 2.5, but the contrast between 0% of such matches for the hosts and 100% for the visitors makes Over 1.5 the safer pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mbeya City were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 4 of them, which supports a draw at the break. However, this is not a certain scenario: Kagera Sugar led at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches. Recent results after the interval clearly favor the hosts — Mbeya averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Kagera averaged 0.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Mbeya won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Kagera won none, so I consider a half-time draw followed by a home win at full-time the most likely outcome. However, the visitors’ higher xG, 1.74 compared with the hosts’ 1.29, means this HT/FT lean is not decisive.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mbeya City is 400% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Mbeya City · 0.4 pts / match - Kagera Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbeya City is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Mbeya City · 0.83 goals / match - Kagera Sugar
Mbeya City is 248% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Mbeya City · 2.33 goals / match - Kagera Sugar
Mbeya City scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Kagera Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Kagera Sugar scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Mbeya City keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mbeya City
Over / Under - Kagera Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kagera Sugar is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Mbeya City · 1.17 pts / match - Kagera Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mbeya City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Kagera Sugar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mbeya City
Kagera Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Mbeya City | Liga | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.67 | 2.49 | ▲ 3.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 17% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 17% | 43% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 27% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 74% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 72% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Kagera SugarGoalEmmanuel Mvuyekure
FAQ
What was the result of Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Mbeya City 1:3 Kagera Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
Mbeya City score 1.00 goals per game on average and Kagera Sugar 0.83. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 17% of Mbeya City's matches and 67% of Kagera Sugar's.
What form are Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Mbeya City have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Kagera Sugar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.