Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a close contest with a high likelihood of a draw. Mekelle Kenema has shown solid form in the last five matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) and remains unbeaten in that span, demonstrating defensive stability (only 1 goal conceded). However, the hosts struggle immensely to win at home (0% home win rate, 71% draws). Mebrat Hayl occupies a higher table position with a better overall record, but they are very ineffective offensively on the road (0.29 goals per match, 71% of matches without scoring), despite being solid defensively (57% clean sheets). Given the hosts' tendency to draw at home and the visitors' poor away scoring record, a share of the points is the most probable outcome. The form of both teams in recent matches (PPG: 1.8 vs 1.6) further confirms the even strength of the sides.
Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mekelle Kenema played Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 20 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mekelle Kenema: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Mebrat Hayl: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mekelle Kenema scores 0.93 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.67 and concedes 0.40. League average: 1.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mekelle Kenema 53%, Mebrat Hayl 20%. Over 2.5: Mekelle Kenema 40%, Mebrat Hayl 13%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Mekelle Kenema has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.11. Mekelle Kenema: 6.7 shots per match, Mebrat Hayl: 7.3.
Match halves
Mekelle Kenema: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.40. Mebrat Hayl: half-time lead 7%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Mekelle Kenema: 16-30 (5 goals). Mebrat Hayl: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.74 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a close contest with a high likelihood of a draw. Mekelle Kenema has shown solid form in the last five matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) and remains unbeaten in that span, demonstrating defensive stability (only 1 goal conceded). However, the hosts struggle immensely to win at home (0% home win rate, 71% draws). Mebrat Hayl occupies a higher table position with a better overall record, but they are very ineffective offensively on the road (0.29 goals per match, 71% of matches without scoring), despite being solid defensively (57% clean sheets). Given the hosts' tendency to draw at home and the visitors' poor away scoring record, a share of the points is the most probable outcome. The form of both teams in recent matches (PPG: 1.8 vs 1.6) further confirms the even strength of the sides.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mekelle Kenema | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mekelle Kenema is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Mekelle Kenema · 1.6 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mekelle Kenema is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
0.93 goals / match - Mekelle Kenema · 0.67 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl is 182% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Mekelle Kenema · 0.4 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Mekelle Kenema scores in 67% of matches (10 of 15 matches), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 67% (10 of 15 matches).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 47% of matches (7 of 15 matches), while Mekelle Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mekelle Kenema
Over / Under - Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mekelle Kenema is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Mekelle Kenema · 1 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mekelle Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 7% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mekelle Kenema
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Mekelle Kenema | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.07 | 1.74 | ▼ 1.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 42% | ▼ 20% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 28% | ▼ 13% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 40% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 56% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 60% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Mekelle KenemaGoalFitsum Alemu Fekir
FAQ
What was the result of Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Mekelle Kenema 2:1 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Mekelle Kenema score 0.93 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.67. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Mekelle Kenema's matches and 20% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Mekelle Kenema and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Mekelle Kenema have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.