Melgar vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

Melgar are clear favourites, winning 70% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.1 goals and losing just 20% of games. FC Cajamarca have managed only a 10% win rate away from home, concede an average of 1.7 goals, and fail to score in half of such matches. The hosts are also in significantly better current form: they have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, while the visitors have failed to win any of their last five. Melgar’s superiority is also evident in chance creation, with an average home xG of 1.68 compared with FC Cajamarca’s 0.98 away from home, while opponents allow their rivals an xG of 1.69. Melgar also average 16.2 shots per match and 5.3 on target, compared with 9.1 and 2.9 for Cajamarca, which should translate into home control and a Melgar victory.

Melgar has recorded BTTS in 80% of its matches this season and maintained the same 80% rate across its last 5 games; FC Cajamarca has also registered BTTS in 80% of its five most recent appearances. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet this season, which clearly increases the likelihood that both sides will find the net. The hosts average 1.8 goals and 4.2 shots on target per match, while the visitors concede an average of 1.7 goals and face an xG of 1.69. Cajamarca averages only 0.8 goals per game this season and has failed to score in 50% of its matches, but its recent xG stands at 1.19 compared with Melgar's recent 1.21 xG conceded, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. BTTS - Yes is therefore the most likely outcome, although Cajamarca's lower offensive consistency limits the strength of this selection.

Melgar score an average of 1.8 goals per match, while FC Cajamarca concede 1.7, clearly supporting at least two goals in the game. The 1.5-goal line was exceeded in 90% of Melgar’s matches and 70% of Cajamarca’s, while both teams have scored at least once in every match this season. The hosts are also in good form: they have scored 9 goals in their last five appearances, with an average xG of 2.02 compared to the 1.54 xG recently allowed by the visitors. Cajamarca failed to score in 50% of their matches, so their attacking projection remains limited to 0.9, while Melgar have not kept a clean sheet at any point this season. The expected total of 2.6 goals supports Over 1.5 as the safest pick, although the 2.5 line is considerably more balanced.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Melgar were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while FC Cajamarca recorded the same figure; the average number of goals before half-time was also only 1.0 and 1.4, respectively. However, the hosts’ advantage should grow after the interval: Melgar average 1.3 goals in second halves, compared with just 0.5 for Cajamarca. The hosts are in significantly better form, collecting 11 points from their last five matches and remaining unbeaten, whereas the visitors have not won during this period and have taken only 3 points. In addition, Melgar have conceded an average of 0.8 goals in their last five appearances, compared with 1.6 for Cajamarca, strengthening the scenario of a turnaround from a draw to a home win after half-time. The quality gap is also reflected in the average xG figures: 1.22 for Melgar versus 0.98 for the visitors, along with the hosts’ higher shot conversion rate of 16% compared with 9%.