Meppen vs Sonnenhof Großaspach: match statistics

Sonnenhof Großaspach go into the match in 6th place, while Meppen sit 17th and lost their only league fixture so far 0:3. The visitors won their opening game of the season 1:0, indicating greater defensive stability than the hosts, who have already conceded 3 goals. In their last five appearances, both teams have recorded 3 wins and averaged 1.8 points per game, but Großaspach have scored 16 goals compared with Meppen’s 12. At the same time, neither defence has been flawless during this period, with Meppen conceding 9 goals and the visitors 10, giving the hosts a strong case to find the net. However, the visitors’ superior attacking output and better start to the league campaign ultimately point towards an away win.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Meppen have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last five matches, while Sonnenhof Großaspach have averaged 3.2 and 2.0, respectively. BTTS occurred in 60% of Meppen’s matches and 40% of Sonnenhof’s games during this period. Combined with both teams’ high attacking output, this gives the BTTS - Yes scenario a clear edge. In total, the hosts have scored 12 goals and conceded 9 in their last five appearances, while the visitors have scored 16 and conceded 10. Another supporting factor is the league profile, where BTTS lands in 80% of matches and the average of 4.4 goals per game favours an open contest. Seasonal data is very limited and partly zero, so greater weight should be placed on the current run, which points to an increased risk of both teams conceding.

The data from the last five matches points to a very open profile for both teams: Meppen averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Sonnenhof Großaspach scored as many as 3.2 goals and conceded 2.0. Over 2.5 goals was recorded in 100% of Meppen’s last five matches, compared with 60% in the visitors’ games, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. In total, both teams scored 28 goals and conceded 19 during this period, meaning their matches averaged 4.7 goals. The league-wide average is also 4.4 goals, while 90% of matches go over the 2.5-goal line. The safest choice remains Over 1.5, as even after a more cautious adjustment for both teams’ high-scoring results, the prospect of at least two goals remains very strong.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Meppen win, as the hosts have averaged 1.2 goals after the break over their last five matches, while Großaspach have failed to score in the second half during this period. Meppen have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before half-time, pointing to the possibility of an evenly balanced opening, but their home xG stands at 1.24 compared with just 0.68 xG conceded to opponents. The visitors have been dangerous across their last five matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored, but they have also conceded 2.0 goals per game and were trailing at half-time in 50% of those fixtures. The hosts have won 60% of their last five matches and have produced positive second-half results, giving them stronger grounds to turn the match in their favour after a cautious first half.