Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan: match statistics

Mes Rafsanjan sit 2nd with 2 wins and 2 draws from four matches, while 13th-placed Mes Kerman are yet to win a game. The visitors’ biggest advantage lies in defence: they have not conceded a goal so far this season, while the hosts have shipped 3 goals in four matches. However, both teams have scored just 2 goals, so Rafsanjan’s attacking output does not justify expecting a high-scoring win. Kerman lost 0:1 at home, while Rafsanjan drew 0:0 in their only listed away match, increasing the likelihood of a draw. Even so, the visitors’ two wins in four matches, compared with none for the hosts, make a narrow pick in favour of Mes Rafsanjan.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: BTTS occurred in 0% of Mes Rafsanjan’s away matches and 0% of Mes Kerman’s home matches. The visitors averaged 0.0 goals away from home and scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Mes Kerman averaged 0.67 goals at home, although its average was higher over its last 5 matches, at 1.0 goal. Both teams have conceded few goals recently — 0.6 and 0.2 per match, respectively — further making a goal at both ends less likely. Even with BTTS in 40% of the hosts’ last 5 matches, the visitors’ 0% rate over that period and the league BTTS average of 28% support the BTTS - No pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

In their last 5 matches, Mes Kerman scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 0.6, while Mes Rafsanjan scored 0.4 and conceded 0.2. The visitors’ matches therefore averaged just 0.6 goals, and none of their last 5 went over 2.5 goals; the figure for the hosts was 20%. The league average of 1.53 goals per match and just 22% of games featuring at least 3 goals also point to a low-scoring competition. The forecast of 1.45 total goals provides the strongest support for Under 3.5 goals, although the small sample of recent matches offers no guarantee.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Mes Kerman were level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Mes Rafsanjan did so in their only away match. In the recent matches covered by this analysis, the hosts failed to score before half-time in 4 games, while the visitors kept a clean sheet at the break in 80% of their last 5 matches. After half-time, Mes Kerman have recently averaged 0.5 goals, compared with 0.2 for Mes Rafsanjan, so a home win remains a significant alternative. The strongest signal for a draw at full-time, however, comes from the visitors’ solid defence: over their last 5 matches, they conceded an average of just 0.2 goals, while scoring 0.4 on average. With such low goal numbers and a limited sample of home and away matches, X/X holds a slight edge over X/1.