Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak have a clearly better record in their last five matches: 3 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat, while Kheybar Khorramabad have won twice and suffered 2 defeats during the same period. The hosts scored 6 goals in those matches, 2 more than their opponents, while conceding 5, meaning their advantage is primarily due to greater attacking efficiency. Mes Shahr-e Babak’s average points tally over the last five rounds stands at 2 points per match, compared with Kheybar’s 1.4. The visitors made a more solid defensive start to the current season, drawing 1:1 and avoiding defeat, whereas the hosts lost their opening match 0:4, increasing the risk of a draw or a setback for them. Despite their weaker league start, the current trend and higher number of goals scored in recent outings slightly favour a home win.

The “No” selection is clearly stronger, as only 17% of matches in the league end with both teams scoring, while in 83% of games at least one side keeps a clean sheet. Kheybar Khorramabad has averaged just 0.8 goals over its last 5 matches, limiting its chances of breaking through the hosts’ defence. Mes Shahr-e Babak has conceded only 1.0 goal per match during this period, while its average xG against stands at a very low 0.11, indicating that it allows few chances. Current BTTS form is also not strong, standing at 20% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors across their last five appearances. The hosts should have the better chance of scoring after averaging 1.2 goals in five matches, but the visitors’ weaker attacking efficiency provides further support for the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The league profile clearly favors low-scoring outcomes: the average is only 2.17 goals, while matches with at least 3 goals account for just 17%. Mes Shahr-e Babak have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last 5 matches, while Kheybar Khorramabad have recorded 0.8 and 1.0 goals respectively. The combined figures from these runs point to an average of 2.2 goals in the home team’s matches and 1.8 in the away team’s matches, a level clearly below the 3.5 line. In addition, the home side allowed an average of just 0.11 xG during this period, limiting the opponent’s attacking potential. With a projected total of 1.95 goals, the most convincing option is Under 3.5, as the bet requires at least 4 goals to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Mes Shahr-e Babak victory at full-time. In their last five matches, the hosts were level at the break in 60% of cases, while Kheybar Khorramabad were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of their games. Both teams create few chances before the break: Mes average 0.4 goals, compared with just 0.2 for Kheybar, which supports a cautious opening. After half-time, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals against 0.6 for the visitors, and their overall form is stronger: they won 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% victories for their opponents. Additionally, the league has a low rate of matches featuring at least two goals before the break, at 17%. Therefore, a draw after 45 minutes followed by the hosts making the most of their advantage is the most logical outcome.