Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak have failed to win any of their 10 league matches, but have drawn 3 of 5 at home, pointing towards a share of the points. Paykan sit higher in the table, 12th compared to 18th, and have taken 5 points from their last 5 rounds, while the hosts have managed just 1. However, the visitors’ advantage is less convincing away from home: they have lost 4 of their 5 away matches and failed to score in 80% of them. Both teams average 0.6 goals per match at home or away, making it difficult to identify a clear attacking favourite. The hosts have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 5 matches, but Paykan’s away average of 1.6 goals conceded also gives the visitors little basis for confidence in a win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is that Paykan have failed to score in 80% of their away matches, while Mes Shahr-e Babak have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home games. The visitors average just 0.6 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 0.4 goals per match at home. Although Paykan concede an average of 1.6 goals away, the hosts score just 0.8 goals at home, so their scoring is far from assured. BTTS - Yes landed in 40% of Mes Shahr-e Babak's home matches and 20% of Paykan's away fixtures, compared with a league average of 39%. The last five matches point to weaker defending from the hosts, who have conceded an average of 2.4 goals, but given the low output of both attacks, it remains more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

In Mes Shahr-e Babak matches, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals, while Paykan average 0.6 goals in their matches, limiting both teams’ scoring potential. However, Mes conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches, and as many as 80% of those games went over 2.5 goals, making the 2.5 line notably risky. The stronger signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this threshold was not exceeded in any of the included home matches or in 80% of Paykan’s matches. With a league average of 1.97 goals and a forecast of 1.95 total goals, Under 3.5 offers a greater margin of safety than the lower line.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: it occurred in 3 of the last 5 matches for both teams in their respective home and away games, while they have averaged only 0.4 and 0.2 goals before the break, respectively. A draw at full time is supported by Mes Shahr-e Babak having drawn 4 of 5 home matches and conceded an average of just 0.4 goals in those games. Paykan average 0.6 goals away from home and failed to score in 4 of 5 such matches, making a turnaround in the visitors’ favour less likely. A home win remains a significant alternative, as Paykan have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches, but Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won any of their last 5 matches overall. The hosts’ weaker recent form reduces confidence in the pick, but given the frequent half-time draws and both teams’ low scoring rates, X/X has the strongest overall case.