Metropolitanos vs Trujillanos: match statistics

Metropolitanos are clear favorites: they sit 3rd, have won 13 of 24 matches this season and prevailed in 4 of their last 5 games, while Trujillanos have managed just 1 win in 18 appearances. At home, the hosts win 62% of their matches, score an average of 1.62 goals and lose only 15% of the time, whereas the visitors are still winless away from home and lose in 78% of cases. Trujillanos’ attacking weakness on the road is crucial: they average 0.56 goals, fail to score in 56% of away games and have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches. The visitors concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match, with an average xG against of 1.94, which should provide the hosts with plenty of chances despite their own average xG of 1.15. Metropolitanos also boast the more stable defense, conceding 1.08 goals per home game compared with Trujillanos’ 2.00 away from home.

I am tipping BTTS - No because both teams recorded the same low percentage of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, at 44%, compared with 52% for the league overall. Trujillanos average just 0.56 goals per match and failed to score in 56% of their games, while in their last five outings they managed only 2 goals, or 0.4 per match. Metropolitanos are in better attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals over their last five matches, but Trujillanos kept a clean sheet in 22% of their games. Although the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals in their last five matches, the visitors’ poor scoring efficiency of 5% increases the risk that they will be the side to fail to find the net. Trujillanos’ higher xG from recent matches, at 1.43, supports the possibility of a single goal, but it does not offset the team’s very poor actual scoring record.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as Metropolitanos matches have finished below this line in 78% of cases this season, compared with 56% for Trujillanos. Trujillanos score just 0.56 goals per match on average, and have netted only 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Metropolitanos have been more efficient recently, recording 1.8 goals per match over their last five fixtures, but their season average of goals scored is only 0.78. The hosts have greater chance-creation potential, as shown by an xG of 1.60 compared with the visitors' 1.21, but the low shot-conversion rates of both teams, 6% and 5% respectively, limit the prospects of a four-goal outcome. The projected total of 2.15 goals points to a scenario with 1-3 goals, clearly favoring Under 3.5.

Metropolitanos are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 1.0, while Trujillanos have won only 20% of their matches in this run and averaged 0.4 goals per game. The hosts have taken the lead at the break more often over the course of the season (33% compared with 11%), and in their last five matches they have not been trailing at half-time, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before the interval. The quality of chances also points to Metropolitanos: their average xG stands at 1.60 compared with 1.21 for the visitors, while Trujillanos allow opponents an xG of 1.94. After the break, the visitors have failed to score in each of their last five appearances, whereas Metropolitanos averaged 0.8 goals in those matches, further supporting the scenario of maintaining a lead. The 1/1 pick is therefore the most likely outcome, although the high proportion of half-time draws for both teams leaves a significant chance of an X/1 scenario.