Metz vs Toulouse: match statistics
Toulouse appears to be the favorite for this matchup despite playing away. Metz sits 18th in the table with disastrous form - zero wins in their last 5 matches and a mere 17% home win rate. The hosts have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 games, and their shot conversion rate is just 8%. Toulouse, despite mediocre recent form (0.4 PPG), has a considerably better away record - a 33% win rate and a positive goal difference (+1). The visitors boast better scoring efficiency (10% conversion) and fail to score less frequently (33% FTS%). Given the massive difference in quality and form between the two teams, a Toulouse victory is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' weak form and Metz's struggles could lead to a draw.
Metz vs Toulouse: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Metz played Toulouse in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 15 March 2026. Final score: 3:4.
Current form
Metz: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Toulouse: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Metz scores 0.88 and concedes 2.24 goals per match. Toulouse scores 1.32 and concedes 1.16. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Metz 48%, Toulouse 40%. Over 2.5: Metz 60%, Toulouse 44%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Toulouse has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.05. Metz: 9.2 shots per match, Toulouse: 13.0.
Match halves
Metz: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.52. Toulouse: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.84.
Goals by minute
Metz: 76-90+ (9 goals). Toulouse: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toulouse appears to be the favorite for this matchup despite playing away. Metz sits 18th in the table with disastrous form - zero wins in their last 5 matches and a mere 17% home win rate. The hosts have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 games, and their shot conversion rate is just 8%. Toulouse, despite mediocre recent form (0.4 PPG), has a considerably better away record - a 33% win rate and a positive goal difference (+1). The visitors boast better scoring efficiency (10% conversion) and fail to score less frequently (33% FTS%). Given the massive difference in quality and form between the two teams, a Toulouse victory is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' weak form and Metz's struggles could lead to a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Metz | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toulouse is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Metz · 1.32 goals / match - Toulouse
Toulouse is 93% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.24 goals / match - Metz · 1.16 goals / match - Toulouse
Metz scores in 56% of matches (14 of 25 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Toulouse scores in 64% of matches (16 of 25 matches), while Metz keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Metz
Over / Under - Toulouse
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toulouse is 69% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.64 pts / match - Metz · 1.08 pts / match - Toulouse
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Metz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 12%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Metz
Toulouse
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Metz | Liga | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.12 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | • 48% | 47% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 70% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 77% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Metz 0 - 0 - 1 Toulouse. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Metz vs Toulouse?
The Ligue 1 match finished Metz 3:4 Toulouse. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz score 0.88 goals per game on average and Toulouse 1.32. The Ligue 1 average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Metz's matches and 40% of Toulouse's.
What form are Metz and Toulouse in?
Over the last 5 games Metz have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Toulouse 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Metz vs Toulouse?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.