Mezőkövesd-Zsóry vs Videoton: match statistics

Mezőkövesd-Zsóry sit 3rd with 11 wins and 32 goals this season; at home they average 0.9 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per match, with a 70% clean sheet rate. Videoton are 6th with 29 goals this season; away they average 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded, with just 9% clean sheets and a 45% loss rate on the road. Visitors register more shots (12.2 vs 10.4) and higher shot conversion (11% vs 9%), and xG is 1.44 for Videoton versus 1.30 for the hosts, indicating better chance creation by the visitors but also greater risk of conceding. In the last 5 matches Mezőkövesd scored 4 goals and average 1.6 points per game, while Videoton scored 7 goals and average 2.2 points per game, so the visitors are in better form; however, the hosts’ defensive edge (0.6 vs 1.55 conceded) and a 60% home win rate favour Mezőkövesd.

xG analysis indicates expected goals around 1.57 for Mezőkövesd‑Zsóry ((1.41 + 1.73)/2) and 1.26 for Videoton ((1.44 + 1.07)/2), both values above 1.0, which technically favors goals from both sides. Videoton has a seasonal BTTS rate of 73% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while the hosts have 25% seasonally and 40% in the last 5 — this gives the away side an advantage as the team more often involved in Goal/Goal games. However, Mezőkövesd‑Zsóry keep 58% clean sheets and concede only 0.58 goals per game on average, whereas Videoton have only 9% clean sheets, so the hosts’ defense materially reduces BTTS risk. Attacking stats and form still support the scoring scenario: the visitors scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches, the hosts 4, and shots on target are 4.27 for the hosts and 3.8 for the visitors with conversion rates of 8% vs 11%. Considering both teams’ xG advantage (1.57 and 1.26), Videoton’s high seasonal BTTS (73%) and recent form, I assign a 62% edge to BTTS - Yes versus 38% for No Goal.

The combined xG of both teams is 1.41 (Mezőkövesd) + 1.44 (Videoton) = 2.85; after opponent adjustment (averaging the home side’s attack xG 1.41 with xG conceded to Videoton 1.73, and 1.44 with xG conceded to Mezőkövesd 1.07) I obtain an expected 1.57 goals for the hosts and 1.26 for the visitors, totaling about 2.83 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.83 yields probabilities of over 1.5 ≈77%, over 2.5 ≈54% and over 3.5 ≈32%. Seasonal data support this view: Mezőkövesd scores on average 1.25 goals at home and has 58% clean sheets, while Videoton has 73% of matches with both teams scoring and concedes on average 1.55 goals, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Considering the combined xG ≈2.8 and the clear probabilistic edge for Over 1.5 (77%), I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the best data-driven signal.

I forecast the home side to lead at the break and win the match (HT/FT = 1/1). Mezőkövesd-Zsóry led at halftime in 50% of matches (6 instances) and scores on average 0.75 goals in the first half versus Videoton’s 0.55, giving the hosts an advantage at the break. Over the full match the home team has a 50% win rate compared to the visitors’ 18% and a significantly lower average of goals conceded (0.58 vs 1.55), while also keeping a clean sheet in 58% of games versus just 9% for Videoton, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. However, note that Videoton are in form (3 wins in their last 5, 60%) and record higher second-half activity (on average 1.73 goals in the second half versus the hosts’ 0.67), so I assign them a small chance of a turnaround.