Midland vs Patronato: match statistics
Midland vs Patronato: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Midland played Patronato in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Ferrocarril Midland. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Midland: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Patronato: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Midland scores 1.05 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Patronato scores 0.65 and concedes 0.85. League average: 1.88 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Midland 40%, Patronato 35%. Over 2.5: Midland 25%, Patronato 15%. League level: BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 31%.
xG, shots and style
Midland has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.20. Midland: 14.4 shots per match, Patronato: 9.7.
Match halves
Midland: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.60. Patronato: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Midland: 76-90+ (7 goals). Patronato: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.88 goals per match, BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 31%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Midland has a clear advantage in chance creation: average xG in home matches is 2.09 versus just 0.99 xG for Patronato away, and average shots on target are 6.09 vs 2.5, indicating roughly twice as many quality opportunities for the hosts. The hosts average 1.18 goals per home match with a conversion rate of about 7%, while the visitors score only 0.4 goals away with a 5% conversion; additionally Patronato fail to score in 60% of away matches compared to 18% for Midland. Defensively Midland also performs better: they concede 0.55 goals at home and have 55% clean sheets, whereas Patronato concede 0.9 goals away and have 40% clean sheets; goal difference is +7 at home versus -5 away for the visitors. Form over the last 5 matches is mediocre for both sides: Midland average 1 point per match in the last 5 (run llddw) and have scored 4 goals, while Patronato average 0.8 points per match (run dddld) and have scored 3 goals, therefore I assess probabilities as 65% home, 25% draw and 10% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - No: 65% (Yes: 35%). Arguments against BTTS: Patronato failed to score in 60% of their matches this season, Midland failed to score in 40%, and seasonal BTTS rates are 40% (Midland) and 30% (Patronato) vs a league average of 39%. In the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred in 60% of meetings, but goal volumes are low: Midland scored 4 and conceded 5 in their last 5 (avg. 0.8 for and 1.0 against), Patronato scored 3 and conceded 4 (avg. 0.6 and 0.8). Chance-creation stats show some potential (recent xG 1.46 for Midland and 1.1 for Patronato, averages 12.0 shots and 3.3 on target vs 7.4 and 2.5), yet poor finishing (conversion 8% vs 5%) limits realistic scoring chances for both. Additionally, a high rate of clean sheets in the league (78%) and a low league goals average (1.89) reinforce the scenario that at least one side will remain without a goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and shooting metrics indicate a match with above-average goal potential: Midland generates 1.41 xG at home, Patronato 0.99 xG away, and average xG against both teams is 1.14 (home) and 1.20 (away), which when averaged yields expected 1.31 goals for Midland and 1.06 for Patronato, totaling 2.37. Midland averages 12 shots and 3.3 on target with 8% conversion, Patronato 7.4 shots and 2.5 on target with 5% conversion, so goal-scoring potential favours the home side. Season stats show Midland had 70% of matches over 1.5 goals, Patronato 50%, and combined with xG these indicators constitute a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I estimate 82%). The probability for Over 2.5 is moderate — season rates are only 20% (Midland) and 10% (Patronato), so I assign 34% for Over 2.5, while Over 3.5 has been 0% for both teams to date, hence a low 6% for Over 3.5. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Midland has a clear advantage in chance creation: the home xG is 1.41 versus 0.99 for Patronato, with an average of 12 shots (3.3 on target) compared to 7.4 shots and 2.5 on target for the visitors, which favors the hosts. At half-time Midland averages 0.6 goals versus Patronato’s 0.2, and Midland led at the break in 40% of matches compared to 20% for Patronato, so a lead at the break for the home side is likely. At the same time the hosts draw 40% of home matches, the visitors draw 60% of away games, and the league records 78% of matches with a clean sheet, so there is a real risk of an equalizer and a draw at full-time. Considering the xG and shot advantage and Midland’s average of 1.7 goals per game versus Patronato’s 1.3, I view the 1/1 scenario as the strongest signal, but I assign meaningful probability to 1/X and X/X given the tendency toward draws.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Midland | Patronato | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Midland is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Midland · 0.8 pts / match - Patronato
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Midland is 62% better for: goals scored per match.
1.05 goals / match - Midland · 0.65 goals / match - Patronato
Midland is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Midland · 0.85 goals / match - Patronato
Midland scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Patronato keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 matches).
Patronato scores in 50% of matches (10 of 20 matches), while Midland keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Midland
Over / Under - Patronato
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Midland is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / match - Midland · 1.4 pts / match - Patronato
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Midland - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Patronato - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Midland
Patronato
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Midland | Liga | Patronato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.80 | 1.88 | ▼ 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | • 40% | 39% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▼ 15% |
| Clean sheets | • 40% | 39% | • 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 56% | • 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 69% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Midland 0 - 1 - 0 Patronato. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Midland vs Patronato?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Midland 1:0 Patronato. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Midland vs Patronato?
Midland score 1.05 goals per game on average and Patronato 0.65. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 31% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Midland's matches and 35% of Patronato's.
What form are Midland and Patronato in?
Over the last 5 games Midland have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Patronato 0-4-1 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Midland vs Patronato?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.