Miedź Legnica vs Warta Poznań: match statistics

Warta Poznań have very solid away numbers: they win 60% of their matches, average 2.00 goals scored, and have not failed to find the net in any game. The visitors are also more clinical, converting 16% of their shots into goals compared with just 5% for Miedź, although the hosts attempt more shots per match—18,67 versus 12,6. Miedź Legnica have conceded just 2 goals all season and have collected 7 points from a possible 10 in their last five matches, but they win only one in three at home and have an xG against of 1,84. Warta create chances worth an average xG of 1,52 away from home, while their defence allows opponents an xG of 1,34, so they should be able to capitalise on their finishing advantage. The hosts could respond with an xG of 1,89 at home, but a narrow victory for the more clinical visitors is the more likely outcome.

The signal for BTTS - No is slightly stronger, as Miedź have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS landed in just 20% of those fixtures. Warta averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, but both teams recorded relatively low BTTS rates: 20% for Miedź and 40% for Warta, compared with the league average of 53%. The hosts are nevertheless a threat in attack, scoring 8 goals in 5 matches and generating an average of 1.83 xG, which is why a Miedź goal remains likely. Warta have averaged 2.0 goals per away game and recorded 60% BTTS, but Miedź’s strong recent defensive form increases the likelihood that the visitors will fail to score. A BTTS scenario cannot be ruled out, particularly given Warta’s xG of 1.61 across their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ effective defensive data gives a marginal edge to the “No” option.

In their last five matches, Miedź averaged 1.6 goals and Warta 1.4, providing a solid foundation for going over two goals in the game. Both teams have also created quality chances, with Miedź averaging 1.83 xG and Warta 1.61. Warta had at least two goals in 80% of their matches so far this season, while their games produced an average of 3.6 goals. Caution with higher lines is warranted due to Miedź’s defensive record, having conceded just 0.4 goals per game in their last five outings; therefore, the safest pick is Over 1.5 goals.

In their last five matches, Miedź have averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, clearly outperforming Warta’s figures of 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The home side won 60% of these games and held a lead at the break in 40% of them, while Warta, despite also leading at half-time in 60% of their matches, failed to win any of their last five after the restart. The second half is a particularly strong argument in favour of Miedź: they averaged 1.2 goals scored, conceded none, and won that period in 80% of their matches. Warta averaged just 0.4 goals after the break and drew the second half in 100% of their games, making a Miedź lead at half-time and a win at full-time the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.