Mil Mugan FK vs Araz: match statistics
Araz presents itself as the clear favorite of this meeting despite playing away. The guests occupy 5th place in the table and have a significantly better offensive record, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per away match compared to only 0.71 goals for Mil Mugan FK at home. A key factor is Araz's effectiveness – their shot conversion is 17% with 3.63 shots on target per match, while the hosts have only 9% conversion and 2.86 shots on target. Mil Mugan FK is in fatal form with only 0.4 points per match in the last five meetings and has not won any of them, while Araz earned 1.2 points per match and won two of the last five games. Additionally, the hosts failed to score in 43% of their home matches, which, given Araz's solid xG advantage (1.16 vs 0.94), argues for a win for the guests.
Mil Mugan FK vs Araz: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mil Mugan FK played Araz in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 23 January 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Mil Mugan FK: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Araz: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mil Mugan FK scores 0.94 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Araz scores 1.56 and concedes 1.56. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mil Mugan FK 25%, Araz 69%. Over 2.5: Mil Mugan FK 31%, Araz 56%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Araz has higher xG: 1.28 vs 0.94. Mil Mugan FK: 7.5 shots per match, Araz: 9.8.
Match halves
Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.63. Araz: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (5 goals). Araz: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Araz presents itself as the clear favorite of this meeting despite playing away. The guests occupy 5th place in the table and have a significantly better offensive record, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per away match compared to only 0.71 goals for Mil Mugan FK at home. A key factor is Araz's effectiveness – their shot conversion is 17% with 3.63 shots on target per match, while the hosts have only 9% conversion and 2.86 shots on target. Mil Mugan FK is in fatal form with only 0.4 points per match in the last five meetings and has not won any of them, while Araz earned 1.2 points per match and won two of the last five games. Additionally, the hosts failed to score in 43% of their home matches, which, given Araz's solid xG advantage (1.16 vs 0.94), argues for a win for the guests.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Araz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Araz is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 1.4 pts / match - Araz
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Araz is 66% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK · 1.56 goals / match - Araz
Mil Mugan FK is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK · 1.56 goals / match - Araz
Mil Mugan FK scores in 50% of matches (8 of 16 matches), while Araz keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
Araz scores in 94% of matches (15 of 16 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 38% (6 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Araz
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Araz is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 1.31 pts / match - Araz
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Araz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mil Mugan FK
Araz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Araz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.94 | 2.51 | ▲ 3.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 46% | ▲ 69% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 31% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 44% | 64% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 77% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mil Mugan FK 0 - 0 - 1 Araz. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Araz?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 2:2 Araz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Araz?
Mil Mugan FK score 0.94 goals per game on average and Araz 1.56. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 69% of Araz's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Araz in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Araz 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Araz?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mil Mugan FK vs Araz: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.