Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very balanced chance for both teams, making a draw the most likely outcome. Mil Mugan FK displays poor home form with only 13% wins at home and as many as 50% draws in home matches, suggesting difficulties in breaking down opponents at their own stadium. Kapaz has a disastrous away record with 70% losses and 0% draws, however, the last five matches show an improvement in form (1.2 points per match compared to 0.4 for the hosts). Both teams have similar xG, shot conversion, and possession statistics, which further confirms the balanced nature of the match. Considering Mil Mugan's tendency to draw at home and Kapaz's problems with winning away, a share of the points seems the most logical scenario, although the hosts have a slight advantage due to the home factor.
Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mil Mugan FK played Kapaz in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 9 February 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Mil Mugan FK: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Kapaz: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mil Mugan FK scores 1.00 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Kapaz scores 0.72 and concedes 2.28. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mil Mugan FK 33%, Kapaz 28%. Over 2.5: Mil Mugan FK 39%, Kapaz 56%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Kapaz has higher xG: 1.21 vs 0.93. Mil Mugan FK: 7.3 shots per match, Kapaz: 10.3.
Match halves
Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67. Kapaz: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (6 goals). Kapaz: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very balanced chance for both teams, making a draw the most likely outcome. Mil Mugan FK displays poor home form with only 13% wins at home and as many as 50% draws in home matches, suggesting difficulties in breaking down opponents at their own stadium. Kapaz has a disastrous away record with 70% losses and 0% draws, however, the last five matches show an improvement in form (1.2 points per match compared to 0.4 for the hosts). Both teams have similar xG, shot conversion, and possession statistics, which further confirms the balanced nature of the match. Considering Mil Mugan's tendency to draw at home and Kapaz's problems with winning away, a share of the points seems the most logical scenario, although the hosts have a slight advantage due to the home factor.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kapaz is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 1.2 pts / match - Kapaz
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mil Mugan FK is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK · 0.72 goals / match - Kapaz
Mil Mugan FK is 87% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK · 2.28 goals / match - Kapaz
Mil Mugan FK scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Kapaz keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
Kapaz scores in 39% of matches (7 of 18 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Kapaz
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mil Mugan FK is 98% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 0.56 pts / match - Kapaz
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kapaz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mil Mugan FK
Kapaz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.22 | 2.61 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 47% | ▼ 28% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 50% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 31% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 68% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 76% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mil Mugan FK 1 - 0 - 0 Kapaz. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 0:0 Kapaz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz?
Mil Mugan FK score 1.00 goals per game on average and Kapaz 0.72. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 28% of Kapaz's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Kapaz in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Kapaz 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mil Mugan FK vs Kapaz: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.