Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK: match statistics
Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mil Mugan FK played Karvan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 22 May 2026. Venue: Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mil Mugan FK: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Karvan FK: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mil Mugan FK scores 0.69 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Karvan FK scores 0.69 and concedes 2.03. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mil Mugan FK 22%, Karvan FK 47%. Over 2.5: Mil Mugan FK 31%, Karvan FK 50%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Mil Mugan FK has higher xG: 0.97 vs 0.88. Mil Mugan FK: 8.0 shots per match, Karvan FK: 6.5.
Match halves
Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.38. Karvan FK: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.34.
Goals by minute
Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (6 goals). Karvan FK: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mil Mugan FK has a clear advantage defensively and in form: both teams scored 22 goals this season, but Mil Mugan conceded 40 compared to Karvan’s 65, and the hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals per home game while Karvan concedes 2.2 on the road. Mil Mugan also creates more quality chances — average home xG is 0.91 versus 0.76 for Karvan, while xG against is 1.26 vs 1.87, indicating better limitation of opponents’ opportunities. In the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.4 points per game and conceded 5 goals, whereas Karvan averaged 0.6 points per game and conceded 8 goals in that period. Mil Mugan registers on average 2.33 shots on target and 7.53 attempts per home match, while Karvan has 1.47 on target and 5.2 attempts away; the visitors have a higher conversion (12% vs 6%), but the low shot volume limits their threat. Considering 8 home wins versus 3 away wins this season, 33% clean sheets for hosts vs 7% for Karvan and a 73% away loss rate for the visitors, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data show both teams have 47% BTTS (league level 45%), indicating a baseline close to even. However, recent form over the last 5 matches is negative: Mil Mugan 0% BTTS, Karvan 20%, and both teams have averaged 0.4 goals in their last 5 games. Seasonal goals averages are 0.76 (Mil Mugan) and 0.60 (Karvan) with xG 0.97 vs 0.76, while they concede on average 1.88 and 2.20 goals respectively, indicating low attacking efficiency despite defensive vulnerability (xG against 1.48 and 1.87). Additionally, Mil Mugan averages 2.76 shots on target versus Karvan’s 1.47, and there is a disparity between Mil Mugan’s recent xG (1.21) and actual 0.4 goals, suggesting finishing issues. Considering these figures—particularly Mil Mugan’s 0% BTTS and the low scoring form—the pick 'No Goal' (No BTTS) looks stronger.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.46 xG for Mil Mugan and 1.03 xG for Karvan, yielding a total of 2.49 goals; this is driven by the home season xG 0.97 and away 0.76 and the opponents’ xG (Karvan 1.87, Mil Mugan 1.48), with form from the last 5 matches taken into account (recent xG home 1.21 vs away 0.64). Mil Mugan scores on average 0.76 goals and concedes 1.88, while Karvan scores 0.60 and concedes 2.20, so both teams have weak defenses, increasing the likelihood of goals. Season percentages for Over 1.5 are 88% for the home side and 73% for the away side, and Over 0.5 is 100%/93%, therefore the Over 1.5 line gives the strongest signal (estimated probability ~85%). The Over 2.5 line is essentially balanced (estimated Over 48% / Under 52%) due to the borderline total xG of 2.49, whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (~18%), consistent with seasonal rates of 12%/27% for Over 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Data analysis indicates a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1). Both teams frequently draw at the break: Mil Mugan were level at half-time in 41% of matches and Karvan in 40%, which raises the probability of a tie after 45 minutes. In the second half the home side holds numerical and qualitative advantages — Mil Mugan’s average xG is 0.97 versus Karvan’s 0.76 and 2.76 shots on target compared to 1.47 for their opponents — and in the last five matches the hosts won 40% of games versus 20% for the visitors. Additionally, Karvan’s defense concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match (xG against 1.87), increasing the likelihood that Mil Mugan will overturn the score after the break and convert an HT draw into an FT victory.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Karvan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mil Mugan FK is 133% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 0.6 pts / match - Karvan FK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mil Mugan FK is 62% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK · 2.03 goals / match - Karvan FK
Mil Mugan FK scores in 44% of matches (14 of 32 matches), while Karvan FK keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 32 matches).
Karvan FK scores in 50% of matches (16 of 32 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 44% (14 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Karvan FK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mil Mugan FK is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK · 0.97 pts / match - Karvan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Karvan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 9%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mil Mugan FK
Karvan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Karvan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.94 | 2.58 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 22% | 46% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 31% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 66% | 74% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mil Mugan FK 1 - 1 - 0 Karvan FK. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 1:1 Karvan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mil Mugan FK and Karvan FK?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mil Mugan FK won 1, Karvan FK won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK?
Mil Mugan FK score 0.69 goals per game on average and Karvan FK 0.69. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 22% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 47% of Karvan FK's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Karvan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Karvan FK 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mil Mugan FK vs Karvan FK: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.